关键词: 城市交通, 决策树结构, ＮＬ模型, 拟合优度度量, 交通方式之间的相关性

Abstract: Nested-Logit model (NL model) is one of the most important models in traffic modal split, based on theoretical basis of the method of traffic modal split for public traffic and private traffic, according to the different factors of people’s first considering in the middle part, the paper constructed virtual traffic modes different from public traffic and private traffic—high-cost and low-cost virtual traffic modes, and analyzed the correlation of alternatives in virtual traffic. the paper also proposed method of choosing the better decision tree structure of traffic mode choice based on goodness of fit measures. According to passenger travel survey data in the example, using SAS software, the paper comparatively analyzed the goodness of fit measure, and the results showed that: the choice probabilities from high-cost and low-cost virtual traffic modes based on the goodness of fit measure can better closer to the survey value. This method is useful in application.

Key words: urban traffic, decision tree structure;NL mode;goodness of fit measure;correlation among traffic models