交通运输系统工程与信息

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2011, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (增1): 110-115.

• 城市交通行为分析 • 上一篇    下一篇

老年人日常出行的出发时刻选择研究

张政*1，冯旭杰2，郭彦东2   

  1. 1. 华能能源交通产业控股股份公司，北京 100036；2. 北京交通大学 城市复杂系统理论与技术教育部重点实验室，北京 100044
  • 收稿日期:2010-05-10 修回日期:2010-08-12 出版日期:2011-12-28 发布日期:2011-07-18
  • 作者简介:张政(1984-)，男，山东青岛人，硕士.
  • 基金资助:

    国家重点基础研究发展计划(2006CB705500); 国家自然科学基金重点项目（70631001）.

Research on the Departure Time Choices of the Elders’ Daily Travels

ZHANG Zheng1, FENG Xu-jie2, GUO Yan-dong2   

  1. 1. Huaneng Energy & Communication Holding CO.LTD，Beijing 100036, China; 2.MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University，Beijing 100044, China
  • Received:2010-05-10 Revised:2010-08-12 Online:2011-12-28 Published:2011-07-18

被引次数

16

摘要： 利用比例风险模型，构建了老年人出行出发时刻选择模型，并利用北京市第三次全市居民出行调查数据，对模型进行了回归分析. 回归结果表明：老年人个人和家庭属性、出行属性、采用的交通方式等12个特征变量对老年人出发时刻的选择有不同程度的影响；12.5％和24.1％的老年人选择在7:00以前和10:00以后出行；69.5％的老年人选择8:00之前出行进行休闲锻炼，以休闲健身为出行目的的老年人的出发时刻相对较早.

关键词: 城市交通, 老年人, 出行, 出发时刻, 比例风险模型

Abstract: A departure time choice model is developed base on the Cox proportional hazard model. And a regression analysis has been carried out to estimate the model, with using the data of the 3rd Resident Trip Survey in Beijing. The results of the regression analysis show that the 12 characteristic variables, such as the personal, family, trip attributes and the choice of traffic mode, effect the departure time choice of the elders’ daily trips at different degrees; 12.5% and 24.1% of the elders’ departure time are respectively before 7:00 am and after 10:00 am; 69.5% of the elders leave for leisure or physical exercise before 8:00 am which is earlier than the departure time of other elders with different trip purposes.

Key words: urban traffic, elders, trip, departure time, Cox proportional hazard model

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