G2京津塘高速公路交通事故与降水量相关性分析

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2011, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (6): 182-187.

G2京津塘高速公路交通事故与降水量相关性分析

窦以文*, 丁德平, 李迅, 张德山, 储伟

北京市气象局，北京 100089

收稿日期:2011-08-11 修回日期:2011-09-04 出版日期:2011-12-25 发布日期:2012-01-04
作者简介:窦以文(1970- )，男，安徽人，高级工程师，硕士.
基金资助:
“十一五”国家科技支撑计划课题(2009BAG13A03); 北京市优秀人才培养资助项目 (2010D002034000001).

Relativity Analysis on Traffic Accident and Precipitation of Jingjintang Expressway in G2

DOU Yi-wen, DING De-ping, LI Xun, ZHANG De-shan, CHU Wei

Beijing Meteorological Bureau, Beijing 100089, China

Received:2011-08-11 Revised:2011-09-04 Online:2011-12-25 Published:2012-01-04

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 通过整理G2京津塘高速公路3年（2007.3～2010.2）逐日逐时的百万车流量交通事故和交通流量及气象要素资料，并将百万车流量交通事故(交通事故与交通流量之商)与同步降水量进行日变化相关分析；结果表明：年平均百万车流量交通事故的日变化最高峰出现在05时，年平均高峰值高达234起•辆-1•10-6；年度、春季、夏季、秋季和冬季的平均百万车流量交通事故与同步降水量均呈正抛物线相关，即百万车流量交通事故随降水量的加大而增多；统计学检验（R＞Rα=0.01 和F＞Fα=0.01）效果很好。四个季节的百万车流量交通事故与降水量相关的系数高达0.7386～0.8635。这一分析事实为G2京津塘高速公路行车安全提供了客观的参考依据。

关键词: 公路运输, 交通事故, 相关性分析, 百万车流, 降水量

Abstract: The paper analyzes the data of Jingjintang expressway in G2 from March 2007 to February 2010, including the daily changes of the traffic accident on millions vehicles, traffic volume and meteorological elements. It further explores the relativity between traffic accident on millions vehicles (the number of traffic accidents/traffic volume) and the synchronous precipitation. The results show that the million traffic accidents peak of in one day appeared at 5 o’clock, and the average peak is up to 234 times in millions of vehicles. For year, spring, summer, autumn and winter, the average precipitation and synchronization million traffic accidents is observed to a positive second-degree parabola relation, namely, the number of one million traffic accidents rises with the precipitation increase. The statistical test also shows good relativity by (R>Rα = 0.01 and F> Fα = 0.01). The precipitation coefficient of 0.7386 to 0.8635 indicates that four seasons million traffic accidents associated with. the precipitation. The results provide reference for safety management of the Jingjintang expressway in G2.

Key words: highway transportation, traffic accident, relativity analysis, millions of vehicles, precipitation

中图分类号:

U491.31

窦以文, 丁德平, 李迅, 张德山, 储伟. G2京津塘高速公路交通事故与降水量相关性分析[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2011, 11(6): 182-187.

DOU Yi-Wen, DING De-Ping, LI Xun, ZHANG De-Shan, CHU Wei. Relativity Analysis on Traffic Accident and Precipitation of Jingjintang Expressway in G2[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2011, 11(6): 182-187.

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链接本文: http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/abstract/abstract18308.shtml

http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/Y2011/V11/I6/182

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