交通运输系统工程与信息

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2011, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (增1): 133-140.

• 城市交通行为分析 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于出行链方式的私人小汽车出行属性分析方法研究

高峰*1，郭彦云2，陈金川3   

  1. 1. 中国邮政速递物流股份有限公司，北京 100031; 2. 北京交通大学 城市交通复杂系统理论与技术教育部重点实验室，北京 100044;3. 北京交通发展研究中心，北京 100055
  • 收稿日期:2010-05-15 修回日期:2010-07-20 出版日期:2011-12-28 发布日期:2011-07-18
  • 作者简介:高峰(1982-)，男，山东人，工程师.

Study on the Travel Attributes of Private Cars on the Basis of Home-Based Trip Chains

GAO Feng1, GUO Yan-yun2, CHEN Jin-chuan3   

  1. 1. China Postal Express & Logistics Corporation，Beijing 100031, China；2. MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University，Beijing 100044, China；3. Beijing Transportation Research Center, Beijing 100055, China
  • Received:2010-05-15 Revised:2010-07-20 Online:2011-12-28 Published:2011-07-18

被引次数

18

摘要： 在经济飞速增长，私人小汽车保有量迅速增加的背景下，本文以私人小汽车使用者为研究对象，旨在探索有效的出行行为分析方法，挖掘私人小汽车出行属性规律，为制定有效的私人小汽车管理措施，缓解城市交通拥挤提供重要的参考依据.本文首先从潜在内部属性和行为属性的角度对私人小汽车的出行属性进行分析；其次，引入基于家出行链分析方法，将基于家出行链与出行方式选择联合分析，建立了双层Nested Logit 模型，并对变量的显著性和敏感性进行了分析；最后，通过对模型统计特性和精度进行验证，检验结果表明,该模型精度较高，结果理想.

关键词: 城市交通, 私人小汽车, 出行属性, 基于家出行链, 非集计模型, Nested Logit 模型

Abstract: Under the background of economic soaring and the number of private cars increasing quickly, this study takes private car users as research object, in order to explore effective analysis method of travel behavior and find out the attributes of travel behavior of private cars, which provide us very important reference for making effective private cars management policies, to solve the traffic congest problem. This study firstly analyzes the attributes of travel behavior of private cars from the viewpoints of latent immanency and travel behavior. Secondly, the method of home-based trip chain analysis is introduced. A Bi-Level Nested Logit model is developed based on the home-based trip-chain analysis. The significance and sensitivity of variables are analyzed. Finally, by means of verifying the statistic characteristics and estimation accuracy of the model, it is proved that the proposed model has comparatively higher estimation accuracy.

Key words: urban traffic, private cars, travel attribute, trip-chaining based on home, discrete choice model, Nested Logit model

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