交通运输系统工程与信息

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2013, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (5): 37-41.

• 智能交通系统与信息技术 • 上一篇    下一篇

集计与非集计速度一致性指标的差异性及应用

郭唐仪*1，邵飞2，刘英舜1，胡启洲1   

  1. 1. 南京理工大学，南京 210094； 2. 中国人民解放军理工大学，南京 210008
  • 收稿日期:2012-04-22 修回日期:2013-05-22 出版日期:2013-10-25 发布日期:2013-11-08
  • 作者简介:郭唐仪（1982-），男，湖北黄冈人，讲师，博士.
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学青年基金项目（51208261）；教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目（12YCZH062）.

Aggregateand Disaggregate Speed Consistency Metrics: Differences and Application

GUO Tang-yi1, SHAO Fei2, LIU Ying-shun1, HU Qi-zhou1   

  1. 1.Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094, China;2. PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210008, China
  • Received:2012-04-22 Revised:2013-05-22 Online:2013-10-25 Published:2013-11-08

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被引次数

2

摘要：

速度差及速度离散性对道路交通安全有重要影响，均可作为速度一致性指标，用于交通安全评价。将速度一致性指标分为集计与非集计两类，从数理上解析传统集计性指标（以运行速度为代表）的两个主要缺陷，即生态学谬论与过高估计安全性。在建立交通安全水平分级标准的基础上，利用运行速度差、85位单车速度差 和85位单车速度变化率 对沪宁高速南京段37个高速公路出口进行了对比性安全评价。结果表明，单车速度变化率可以考虑上游路段初始速度；非集计速度指标可有效避免生态学谬论及过高估计安全性的缺陷。

关键词: 公路运输, 交通安全, 速度一致性, 非集计速度, 高速公路出口, 单车速度

Abstract:

Speed difference and discreteness, which closely related to traffic safety, can be introduced as metrics of speed consistency to assess safety performance. The speed consistency metrics are classified into two categories, namely, the aggregate and disaggregate ones. The two main shortcomings of the aggregate metrics, ecological fallacy and safety overestimation, are deduced and verified by mathematic analysis. Based on the given safety evaluation criterion, the safety levels of 37 exits along freeway G42 in Nanjing, China, are appraised using the conventional aggregate measure, operating speed , the 85th percentile individual speed difference , and the 85th percentile individual speed change rate . The comparative analysis indicates that the disaggregate speed consistency metrics are capable of avoiding the pitfalls possessed by aggregate metrics to a certain extent. Thus, the disaggregate speed metrics should be adopted in road safety evaluation in both the fields of research and engineering application.

Key words: highway transportation, traffic safety, speed consistency, disaggregate speed, freeway exits, individual vehicular speed

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