关键词: 交通工程, 可靠性, ARCH 模型簇, 行程时间, 时间序列

Abstract:

The reliability of travel time is a key index of transportation network reliability. The heteroskedasticity occurs in the variability of travel time because of the uncertainty of traffic network. Thus the travel time cannot be accurately predicted through traditional mathematic statistic method. To cope with the characteristics of clustering, high peak and fat tail, the paper introduces ARCH model cluster in the econometrics. The models are formulated in the empirical analysis to evaluate the volatility and continuity of route travel time variability, describe the distribution of extrinsic information and analyze the response of route travel time variability to the inference of extrinsic information. Results show that ARCH model cluster adapted well to the variability of variance of travel time and corresponded to the features of traffic network. Effective evaluation of route travel time reliability is also obtained.

Key words: transportation engineering, reliability, ARCH model cluster, travel time, time series