关键词: 城市交通, 快速路, 交通事件, 持续时间, 生存分析, Cox 回归

Abstract:

This paper introduces the survival analysis into the traffic incident mechanism. A survival analysis based Modeling of traffic incident duration for urban expressways is presented. Based on the observed traffic incident data of viaduct expressways in Shanghai, China, this model first analyzes the feature attributes of many traffic incident samples, and employs nonparametric regression based on Kaplan-Meyer model to estimate hazard- based traffic incident duration. Then, the key impact factors of traffic incident are classified into five types and the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of traffic incident duration time are analyzed. Finally, linear Cox regression is used to comprehensively evaluate multidimensional influencing factors of traffic incident duration. The key characteristic parameters of expressway incident management in Shanghai are optimized to analyze the evolution mechanism of incident duration. The result shows that, for different type of influencing factors, the spatial-time distribution of traffic incident duration in Shanghai expressway has significant difference, and nine factors as day and night, incident type, related vehicle number, related lane number, location, bottleneck and trailer significantly affect the incident duration.

Key words: urban traffic, expressway, traffic incident, incident duration, survival analysis, Cox regression