关键词: 城市交通, 参考点, 累积前景理论, 预算出行时间, 通勤者, 路径选择

Abstract:

So as to describe travel behavior of decision makers under uncertain environment comprehensively and study route choice behavior and risk attitude of commuters from value variation and reliability variation, a route choice model for commuters based on cumulative prospect theory (CPT) is proposed. Firstly, CPT with two reference points is generalized. Then, travel time is budgeted according to uncertain theory, and on the basis of the budget travel time, a unified method for estimating commuters' reference point is presented. And then, a route choice model for commuters is established. At last, relationship between reliability and reference point and relationship between reliability and cumulative prospect value are studied on a test network. The results show that commuters' reference point can be set dynamically according to their requested reliabilities. When departure time is same, and when a traveler has a higher requested reliability, a lower risk path has a larger prospect value; whereas when a traveler has a lower requested reliability, a path with smaller mean travel time and although with a higher risk also has a larger prospect value. It is consistent with the fact. The proposed decision model can describe route choice behavior of commuters on random road networks effectively.

Key words: urban traffic, reference point, cumulative prospect theory, budget travel time, commuter, route choice