交通运输系统工程与信息

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2023, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (1): 305-313.DOI: 10.16097/j.cnki.1009-6744.2023.01.032

• 工程应用与案例分析 • 上一篇    下一篇

疫情不同阶段西部陆海新通道市场分担率变化研究

郭姝娟1，魏梓峰1，孙正宇1，李一义1，李纲*2   

  1. 1. 大连海事大学，交通运输工程学院，辽宁 大连 116026；2.大连交通大学，交通运输工程学院，辽宁 大连 116028
  • 收稿日期:2022-10-13 修回日期:2022-11-08 接受日期:2022-11-11 出版日期:2023-02-25 发布日期:2023-02-16
  • 作者简介:郭姝娟(1983- )，女，吉林东辽人，副教授。
  • 基金资助:
    辽宁省社会科学规划基金重点项目(L22AGL004)

Evaluation of Market Share of New International Land-sea Trade Corridor in Different Periods of COVID-19

GUO Shu-juan1, WEI Zi-feng1, SUN Zheng-yu1, LI Yi-yi1, LI Gang*2   

  1. 1. College of Transportation Engineering, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, Liaoning, China; 2. School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Dalian Jiaotong University, Dalian 116028, Liaoning, China
  • Received:2022-10-13 Revised:2022-11-08 Accepted:2022-11-11 Online:2023-02-25 Published:2023-02-16
  • Supported by:
    Social Science Planning Found of Liaoning Province Key Program (L22AGL004)

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摘要： 为探究全球新冠肺炎疫情波动变化背景下西部陆海新通道对解决中欧集装箱货运问题的影响，本文利用中欧集装箱运输数据，以集装箱海运班轮运输路线、中欧班列运输路线和西部陆海新通道路线为选择肢，分别构建多项式Logit模型和混合Logit模型进行对比分析，探索疫情3个阶段下托运人对中欧集装箱运输的路线选择决策机制；并在疫情不同时期内，估算陆海新通道运输属性的主观值。研究结果表明：托运人对于中欧集装箱运输的路线属性在不同疫情时期内具有不同的个体异质性，货物的时间价值随疫情严峻性增加而稳步增加，延迟时间价值增加幅度先快后慢。在疫情松弛期，陆海新通道的市场分担率主要受自身运输费用和班轮的运输时间影响；疫情平稳期，主要受自身和班轮运输时间影响；疫情严峻期，主要受自身延迟时间影响。疫情时期，陆海新通道在西部省市承担的集装箱货运量比例总体持续增长且增速较快；在疫情平稳期，中西南部地区增速较快；疫情严峻期，西北部地区增加明显。

关键词: 综合运输, 市场分担率预测, 混合Logit模型, 陆海新通道, 新冠肺炎疫情

Abstract: This paper investigates the market share of the New International Land-Sea Trade Corridor (ILSTC) with the fluctuation and change of the global COVID-19 pandemic. The container shipping liner transport routes, China Railway Express (CR Express) transport routes and the ILSTC routes are selected as the alternative based on the collected data of the container transportation between China and Europe. The Multinomial Logit model and Mixed Logit models are established for comparative analysis. The route selection decision-making mechanism of shippers is analyzed for the China-Europe container transport in three stages of the pandemic and the subjective value of the transportation attributes of ILSTC are estimated for different stages. The results show that the shippers have different individual heterogeneity according to the route attributes of container transport between China and Europe in different pandemic stages. The time value of goods increases steadily with the severity of the pandemic, and the delay time value first increases fast and then slow down. During the slack period of the pandemic, the market share of ILSTC is mainly affected by the transport costs and liner transport time. In the stable period of the pandemic, the market share of ILSTC is mainly affected by the liner transport time. The market share is affected by the delay time in the severe period. During the pandemic, the container freight volume undertaken by the new land sea channel in western provinces and cities experienced continuous and rapid growth. The growth was fast in the southwest region during the pandemic stable period, and the growth in the northwest region was obvious in the pandemic severe period.

Key words: integrated transportation, market share prediction, mixed Logit model, new international land- sea trade corridor, COVID-19 pandemic

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