交通运输系统工程与信息

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2007, Vol. 7 ›› Issue (3): 111-117 .

• 系统工程理论与方法 • 上一篇    下一篇

道路交通安全影响因素的国际对比与系统分析

毛力增1，段里仁2，毛恩荣1   

  1. 1.中国农业大学工学院，北京，中国，100083；2.北京市公安局公安交通管理局，北京，中国，100034
  • 收稿日期:2006-12-29 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2007-06-25 发布日期:2007-06-25

International Compare and System Analysis about Factors
Contribute to Road Traffic Safety

MAO Li-zeng1, DUAN Li-ren2, MAO En-rong1   

  1. 1. College of Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100083, China
    2. Beijing Traffic Management Bureau, Beijing, 100034, China
  • Received:2006-12-29 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2007-06-25 Published:2007-06-25

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被引次数

35

摘要： 本文以世界上26个国家和地区的道路交通安全状况作为研究对象，选取的国家和地区既包括美国、日本、英国、法国等发达国家也包括中国、越南、印度、泰国等发展中国家，具有很强的国际代表性。研究的道路交通安全影响因素涵盖了机动车保有量、道路总里程、GDP总量、人口、人均机动车保有量、人均GDP以及各国的交通安全目标七个方面。对道路交通安全水平采用交通事故死亡人数、受伤人数、万车死亡率、10万人口死亡率和致死率进行评价。在对交通事故的特点进行对比分析的基础上，对26个国家和地区的道路交通安全影响因素之间的联系进行了系统的分析，并采用SPSS数据统计软件对各参量之间的Kendall相关系数进行计算，根据计算结果，结合各个国家的国情，得出了5条结论和启示，为进一步深入系统地研究我国道路交通安全提供了有益的借鉴。

关键词: 交通事故, 影响因素, 相关性, 道路交通安全

Abstract: This paper takes road traffic safety status in 26 representative countries and regions worldwide as researching objects, including developed countries such as U.S.A, Japan, U.K, France, etc. and developed countries such as China, Vietnam, India, Thailand, etc.. The studied road traffic safety factors cover 7 aspects such as motor vehicles owned, the mileage of the total road, GDP, population, the GDP per capita, traffic safety objectives. In order to evaluate road traffic safety, the death toll, the injured number, the mortality rate per ten thousand vehicles, mortality rates per 100 000 persons and fatality are adopted. Based on the comparison and analysis of traffic accidents, the relation of road traffic safety factor in the above countries is systematically analyzed. And Kendall correlation coefficient of every parameter is calculated with SPSS. According to the result and the situation of every country, five important conclusions and revelations are presented. They lay beneficial roots for studying road traffic safety deeply.

Key words: Traffic Accident, Related Factors, Correlations, Road Traffic Safety

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