交通运输系统工程与信息

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2007, Vol. 7 ›› Issue (4): 126-130 .

• 系统工程理论与方法 • 上一篇    下一篇

铁路干线建设项目社会经济效益定量化SD模型研究

刘 奕1 , 贾元华1 , 冯 璐2   

  1. 1．北京交通大学交通运输学院，北京100044；2．中国农业银行四川省分行，成都 610041
  • 收稿日期:2007-01-17 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2007-08-25 发布日期:2007-08-25

Applying System Dynamic Model to Calculating the Socioeconomic Benefits
of Railway Project

Liu Yi 1，Jia Yuanhua 1， Feng Lu2   

  1. 1． School of Traffic and Transportation，Beijing Jiaotong University，Beijing 00044；
    2．Agricultural Bank of China, Sichuan Branch, Chengdu 610041
  • Received:2007-01-17 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2007-08-25 Published:2007-08-25

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被引次数

9

摘要： 社会经济效益评价是铁路干线路网规划及建设项目决策的重要前提和依据。本文在系统分析铁路干线建设项目社会经济效益的特点和扩散途径基础上，描述了铁路干线建设与区域经济发展之间的内在机理，建立了系统动力学模型，分铁路运输需求和供给两个子系统，利用Versim软件对铁路干线的社会经济效益进行仿真模拟和测算，同时结合京九铁路阜阳段的实际案例对模型和方法进行了验证，结果较为客观合理。该研究有助于提高铁路建设项目管理及规划决策科学化、规范化水平，为铁路大规模建设时期的项目决策提供依据。

关键词: 项目评价 , 运输经济 , 社会经济效益 , 系统动力学

Abstract: Socioeconomic benefit evaluation is the main precondition and foundation in railway project planning and decision. On the basis of the analysis of the characteristic and process of socioeconomic benefits, this paper has established the system dynamics model（SD）based on the inherent mechanism between railway construction and economy development. This system has been divided into two subsystems: railway transport demand subsystem and supply subsystem. Versim can be used to simulate and calculate the socioeconomic benefits of the main railways. And then, an example of Jingjiu Railway Fuyang Section has been illustrated. The final conclusion is external and logical on the whole. This research has helped to standardize the management and decision-making of railway projects and provided basis to decision making in mass construction period.

Key words: project evaluation, transport economy, socioeconomic benefits, system dynamics model(SD)

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