交通运输系统工程与信息

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2012, Vol. 12 ›› Issue (4): 17-21.

• 综合交通运输体系论坛 • 上一篇    下一篇

宏观交通需求模型构建方法实证研究

李德慧*1,2,3，单静涛2，王江燕2，岳鹏2   

  1. 1. 北京理工大学 珠海学院, 广东 珠海 519085； 2. 柏诚工程技术（北京）有限公司,北京 100027;3.四川省蓝地规划设计院有限公司， 成都 610000
  • 收稿日期:2012-02-10 修回日期:2012-03-24 出版日期:2012-08-25 发布日期:2012-09-07
  • 作者简介:李德慧（1977-），男，山东德州人，副教授.

Empirical Research Method on Transportation Demand Modeling

LI De-hui 1,2,3, SHAN Jing-tao 2, WANG Jiang-yan 2, YUE Peng 2   

  1. 1. Zhuhai Campus of Beijing Institute of Technology, Zhuhai 519085, Guangdong, China;  2.Parsons Brinckerhoff Engineering Technology (Beijing) Co.Ltd, Beijing 100027, China;3. Sichuan Land Planning and Design Institute(Ltd), Chengdu 610000,China
  • Received:2012-02-10 Revised:2012-03-24 Online:2012-08-25 Published:2012-09-07

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被引次数

1

摘要：

基于城市中心区拥堵不断加剧的现状，同时也考虑到未来城市人口增长、用地调整，以及城市化和机动化进程不断加速发展的趋势，本文依托西南某中心城市缓解拥堵重点项目，合理规划未来城市交通系统.决策定量化是未来城市交通规划的决策趋势，而交通模型是重要的技术支撑手段.在居民出行等调查数据的基础上，采用四阶段构架进行交通需求模型的建模.在方式划分阶段，根据家庭是否有车分别采用NL和MNL模型，并在交通分配时定制符合本地城市特点的路阻函数.最后，通过模型测试评价不同规划策略和方案的交通运输效果.

关键词: 城市交通, 交通模型, 参数标定, 交通分配, 模型应用

Abstract:

This paper is based on a key project of a central city in southwest of China. It aims at alleviating the traffic congestion of cities. With the increases of city population and vehicle ownership and motorization, the quantitative strategic decision for the transportation system planning is rather important and urgent than ever before. And the demand model formulation is a key foundation for the planning. To conduct quantitative analysis on the planning schemes, the four-step transportation demand model is developed based on the household survey. The NL and MNL models are used according to the vehicle ownership in the process of mode split, and the volume delay function is determined in traffic assignment. The comprehensive schemes based on planning, construction, policy and management are finally tested to evaluate the possible effect.

Key words: urban traffic, transportation modeling, parameter calibration, traffic assignment, model application

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