交通运输系统工程与信息

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2013, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (1): 25-.

• 综合交通运输体系论坛 • 上一篇    下一篇

公路运输区域关联模型研究

段新*，刘振华，王屾，秦芬芬   

  1. 交通运输部科学研究院，北京 100029
  • 收稿日期:2012-08-15 修回日期:2012-10-18 出版日期:2013-02-25 发布日期:2013-03-04
  • 作者简介:段新（1978–），女，山东临清人，高级经济师.
  • 基金资助:

    交通运输部前期费项目（2008-3-18）.

Inter region Correlation Model for Road Transportation

DUAN Xin, LIU Zhen-hua, WANG Shen, QIN Fen-fen   

  1. China Academy of Transportation Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
  • Received:2012-08-15 Revised:2012-10-18 Online:2013-02-25 Published:2013-03-04

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被引次数

6

摘要：

全面准确统计公路运输在区域间的流通规模和结构，掌握区域公路运输发展的趋势、特点和规律，是科学编制区域交通发展规划、出台区域运输发展政策的重要基础.长久以来，受管理体制和统计手段限制，我国公路运输量统计一直沿袭基于车辆注册地的抽样调查模式，统计结果不仅难以与当地经济发展水平相匹配，也难以反映公路运输生产在区域间的交流情况.随着经济社会的快速发展，区域间人员和物资流通日益频繁，急需反映区域经济关联关系的运输统计工具.本文在车辆抽样调查的基础上，通过研究编制公路运输流量流向矩阵，构建公路运输区域关联模型，为研究分析区域间公路运输供给与需求关系、测算区域公路运输生产规模提供基础支撑.

关键词: 公路运输, 区域关联, 流量流向

Abstract:

It is essential to accurately calculate the scale and structure of interregion road transportation and grasp the tendency and characteristics of regional road transportation. It also lays the foundation for making out the regional traffic development program and regional transportation development policy. Because of the limitation of management system and statistical techniques in China, the road transportation volume statistics are usually based on sample investigation of local vehicles. This makes the results cannot mach well with the actual local economy development. It is not able to reflect interregion exchange of road transportation. As the repaid economy and society development, interregion flow of personnel and cargo is more frequently and important. This places an urgent need of statistical approach that can reflect the interregion road transportation correlation. This paper develops an interregion correlation model for road transportation with a flux and flow direction matrix. This model provides a quantitative method to analyze demand and supply of interregion road transportation and estimate the regional road transportation volume.

Key words: highway transportation, regional correlation, flux and flow direction

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