交通运输系统工程与信息

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2014, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (1): 65-70.

• 系统工程理论与方法 • 上一篇    下一篇

两分式条件价值法评估道路交通统计生命价值

刘文歌*1， 赵胜川2   

  1. 1.大连交通大学 经济管理学院， 辽宁 大连 116028； 2.大连理工大学 管理学院， 辽宁 大连 116024
  • 收稿日期:2013-07-24 修回日期:2013-09-28 出版日期:2014-02-25 发布日期:2014-07-07
  • 作者简介:刘文歌（1981-），女，辽宁大连人，讲师，博士生.
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金项目（50978046）.

The VOSL in Road Traffic Based on CVM with Dichotomous Choice Formats

LIU Wen-ge1,ZHAO Sheng-chuan2   

  1. 1.School of Economics and Management, Dalian Jiaotong University, Dalian 116028，Liaoning, China; 2.School of Management, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024，Liaoning, China
  • Received:2013-07-24 Revised:2013-09-28 Online:2014-02-25 Published:2014-07-07

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被引次数

3

摘要：

基于二分式条件价值法进行道路交通统计生命价值的评价研究.采用双边界两分式与三边界两分式两种问卷格式设计调查问卷，以大连市私家车出行者为调查对象实施交通意向调查.利用多项Logit模型构建道路交通统计生命价值评价模型，利用GAUSS软件进行模型参数标定，最终获得统计生命价值评估值并进行影响因素分析.研究结果表明：三边界两分式调查问卷更能模拟市场定价过程，三边界两分式评价模型具有更高精确性,其评估结果更为合理；个人驾龄、学历和家庭月收入三大因素对道路交通统计生命价值影响显著.

关键词: 城市交通, 统计生命价值, 多项Logit模型, 条件价值法, 两分式选择格式

Abstract:

The value of a statistical life (VOSL) in road traffic is evaluated based on the contingent value method (CVM) with dichotomous choice formats. The questionnaires are designed by using double bounded and triple bounded dichotomous choice formats, and the survey is implemented regarding Dalian private drivers as respondents. The VOSL model is established based on the multinominal logit (MNL) model, and the parameters are calibrated by Gauss. Finally, VOSL is estimated and its factors are analyzed. The study results indicate that the questionnaire with triple bounded dichotomous choice format can better simulate the process of market pricing, the VOSL evaluation model based on triple bounded dichotomous choice format has a higher accuracy and its evaluation result is more reasonable. Moreover, VOSL in road traffic is significantly influenced by three factors that are monthly family income, traffic experience and education.

Key words: urban traffic, VOSL, MNL model, CVM, dichotomous choice formats

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