关键词: 城市交通, 宏微观耦合模型, 约束卡尔曼滤波, MCTM, Paramics

Abstract:

The reliable and real- time traffic flow prediction is the foundation of traffic management and control in urban traffic. It is difficult for a modified cell transmission model (MCTM) to obtain micro information of the approach section, and also for Paramics simulation model to estimate accurate OD matrix of the whole road network. So a macro-micro model is proposed to keep online traffic flow prediction away from those defects. In unit interval of the prediction, it uses MCTM to predict effective density of basic cells and initial density of approach cells firstly. Then it establishes an interface to calculate simulation vehicle number and uses Paramics for a micro simulation of approach section. The simulation data is used to predict queue length of the intersection and effective density of approach cells to replace the initial ones to be initial input in next interval. During the simulation, a turning traffic demand prediction model based on constrained Kalman filter is established to get the real- time turning traffic demand in unit interval. The simulation analysis indicates the macro-micro model meets the requirements of online traffic flow prediction in urban traffic.

Key words: urban traffic, macro-micro model, constrained Kalman filter, MCTM, Paramics