基于THERP—Markov 原理的高铁列调人因可靠性分析

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2014, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (6): 133-140.

基于THERP—Markov 原理的高铁列调人因可靠性分析

徐培娟，彭其渊，文超^*，郭经纬，占曙光

西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院，成都，610031

收稿日期:2014-04-15 修回日期:2014-09-21 出版日期:2014-12-25 发布日期:2014-12-30
作者简介:徐培娟（1989-），女，山东聊城人，博士生.
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金（U1234206）；西南交通大学博士研究生创新基金（2015）.

Human Reliability Analysis on High-speed Train Dispatcher Based on THERP and Markov Theories

XU Pei-juan，PENG Qi-yuan, WEN Chao, GUO Jing-wei, ZHAN Shu-guang

School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong Universiy, Chengdu 610031, China

Received:2014-04-15 Revised:2014-09-21 Online:2014-12-25 Published:2014-12-30

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在高速铁路调度指挥系统中，列调人员通过调度终端来指挥铁路现场的生产活动，调度员的操作直接影响列车的运行.本文引入核电工业中的THERP理论，结合列调操作特征来计算静态条件下列调操作失误率及其置信区间；并结合马尔科夫链原理，建立状态转移率方程，通过拉普拉斯变换得出单影响因子作用下列调可靠性的状态概率变化规律.最后，以执行列控限速任务为例，得出列调的静态失误率及压力影响因子作用下人因动态可靠性变化规律. 研究结果表明：在压力适中的情况下，列控限速执行失败率最低，为0.010 4.

关键词: 铁路运输, 人因可靠性, THERP理论, 马尔科夫链, 动态可靠性

Abstract:

In the dispatching system of high-speed railway, the dispatching terminal equipment is used by dispatchers who manage the running high- speed trains and related production activities, so reliability of dispatchers is directly related to the safety of high-speed trains. In this paper, THERP theory is introduced from nuclear plant industry to calculate the failure rate and the corresponding confidence intervals of dispatchers under static conditions, combining with the characteristics of their job content. According to the Markov chain theory, then the probability state transferring equations is established to study law of the dispatcher reliability under a certain influencing factor, by Laplace transform. Finally, the task about setting train speed limitation done by the dispatcher is taken for an example to analyze the static and dynamic reliability, when the person is under the influence of different level of pressure. The results show that human error rate about setting train speed limitation is lowest with 0.010 4 under medium pressure state.

Key words: railway transportation, human reliability, THERP theory, Markov chain, dynamic reliability

中图分类号:

U292.4+2

徐培娟，彭其渊，文超，郭经纬，占曙光. 基于THERP—Markov 原理的高铁列调人因可靠性分析[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2014, 14(6): 133-140.

XU Pei-juan，PENG Qi-yuan, WEN Chao, GUO Jing-wei, ZHAN Shu-guang. Human Reliability Analysis on High-speed Train Dispatcher Based on THERP and Markov Theories[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2014, 14(6): 133-140.

导出引用管理器 EndNote|Ris|BibTeX

链接本文: http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/abstract/abstract18899.shtml

http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/Y2014/V14/I6/133

参考文献

[1] Swain A D, Guttmann H E. Handbook of human reliability analysis with emphasis on nuclear power plant applications[R]. NUREG/CR一1278, 1983.

[2] Brune R L, Weinstein M, Fitzwater M E. Peer-review study of the draft handbook for human- reliability analysis with emphasis on nuclear- power- plant applications[R]. NUREG/CR-1278.Human Performance Technologies, Inc., Thousand Oaks, CA (USA), 1983.

[3] Kirwan B. The validation of three human reliability quantification techniques—THERP, HEART and JHEDI: Part 1—technique descriptions and validation issues[J]. Applied Ergonomics, 1996,27(6):359-373.

[4] Hollnagel E. Human reliability assessment in context[J]. Nuclear Engineering and Technology, 2005,37(2):159.

[5] Taylor-Adams S, Kirwan B. Human reliability data requirements[J]. International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management, 1995,12(1):24-46.

[6] Cooper S E, Bley D C, Parry W G, et al. Knowledgebase for the new human reliability analysis method [C]// A Technique for Human Error Analysis (ATHEANA), 1996.

[7] 张力. 概率安全评价中人因可靠性分析技术研究[D]. 湖南大学, 2004. [ZHANG L. The research on human reliability analysis technique in probabilistic safety assessment[D]. Hunan University,2004.]

[8] 苏畅, 张恒喜. 飞机作战效能评估中人的可靠性的引入方法[J]. 航空学报, 2006 (02) : 262-266. [SU C, ZHANG H X. Method of considering human reliability in combat effectiveness evaluation of aircraft[J]. Acta Aeronautica Et Astronautica Sinica, 2006(02):262-266.]

[9] 张兴昌. 列车调度员系统可靠性探讨[J]. 上海铁道科技, 2011(01):22-23.[ZHANG X C. Reliability analysis of train dispatcher system[J]. Shanghai Railway Science & Technology, 2011(01):22-23.]

[10] 王洁, 方卫宁, 苗冲冲, 等. 地铁行车调度员人误模式结构化分析[J]. 人类工效学, 2013(01):55- 58. [ZHANG J, FANG W N, MIAO C C. Structured analysis on human mistake model of subway dispatcher[J]. Chinese Journal of Ergonomics, 2013(01):55-58.]

[11] 王洁. 面向地铁突发事件的行车调度系统人误预测研究[D]. 北京交通大学, 2013.[WANG J. Research on traffic dispatching system human error prediction for the subway emergency[D]. Beijing Jiaotong University, 2013.]

[12] 谢红卫, 孙志强, 李欣欣, 等. 典型人因可靠性分析方法评述[J]. 国防科技大学学报, 2007(02):101-107. [XIE H W, SUN Z Q, LI X X, et al. An Overview of typical methods for human reliability analysis[J]. Journal of National University of Defense Technology， 2007(02):101-107.]

[13] 刘卫华. 利用THERP与HCR相结合的方法对秦山三期PSA人因可靠性进行修正[D]. 上海交通大学, 2007.[LIU W H. Modification of human reliability analysis using HCR combination with THERP In third Qinshan Npp Psa[D]. Shanghai Jiaotong University,2007.]

[14] Marvin Rausand. Risk assessment theory, methods, and application[M] . Wiley, 2011.

[15] Dhillon B S. Stochastic models for predicting human reliability[J]. Microelectronics Reliability, 1982,22(3): 491-496.

[16] Dhillon B S, Rayapati S N. Reliability evaluation of human operators under stress[J]. Microelectronics Reliability, 1985,25 (4):729-752.