关键词: 铁路运输, 滞留客流预测, 客流动态交互模型, 快慢车模式, 市郊轨道交通

Abstract:

The stranded passenger flow forecasting of suburban rail station is related to the adjustment of operation plan, trip mode choice of passengers, and prediction of travel time, especially for operation scheme optimization based on fast- slow mode is of great importance. First of all, the theory of angle expenses is introduced, from the cost of the way of transit trip and subway lines, which determines the passenger choice. It uses the passenger flow data obtaining from AFC as data support. A forecasting method of passenger flow is presented based on period distribution. Secondly, it analyzes the law of passenger flow and traffic exchange platform based on train passenger status. It also proposes the waiting passenger train ridership interaction model, and studies the algorithm. Finally, this paper takes a suburban line as example calculation. It shows that the accuracy of the prediction results is improved. This can be as supplementary for railway traffic planning, guidance for passenger flow, and be of certain reference and practical.

Key words: railway transportation, passenger flow forecast, dynamic interaction model of passenger flow, express-local mode, suburban-urban line