基于Vine Copula的原油海运网络中节点连通可靠性研究

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2018, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (4): 32-37.

• 综合交通运输体系论坛 • 上一篇下一篇

基于Vine Copula的原油海运网络中节点连通可靠性研究

王爽，吕靖^*，赖成寿

大连海事大学交通运输工程学院，辽宁大连 116026

收稿日期:2018-05-15 修回日期:2018-06-01 出版日期:2018-08-25 发布日期:2018-08-27
作者简介:王爽(1991-)，女，辽宁大连人，博士生.
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金/National Natural Science Foundation of China(71473023)；教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金/ MOE Foundation of Humanities and Social Science(16YJAZH030).

Connectivity Reliability of Nodes in the Maritime Transportation Network of Crude Oil Based on Vine Copulas

WANG Shuang, LV Jing, LAI Cheng-shou

Transportation Engineering College, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, Liaoning, China

Received:2018-05-15 Revised:2018-06-01 Online:2018-08-25 Published:2018-08-27

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为评价各突发事件相互关联时的原油海运网络中关键节点的连通可靠性，引入vine copula构建各突发事件的联合分布，并基于各突发事件的联合分布和条件分布进行节点连通可靠性评估.以马六甲海峡为例进行案例分析，结果表明：节点隶属国家政局不稳定及军事冲突与海盗及海上恐怖主义间具有对称的尾部相关性，而海盗及海上恐怖主义和船舶交通事故分别与恶劣天气具有下尾相关性.此外，在节点隶属国家政局不稳定及军事冲突、恶劣天气和海盗及海上恐怖主义的作用下，马六甲海峡的连通可靠性较低，仅为0.239 5；而在节点隶属国家政局不稳定及军事冲突、恶劣天气和船舶交通事故的作用下，马六甲海峡的连通可靠性相对较高.

关键词: 水路运输, 连通可靠性, vine copula, 关键节点, 原油海运网络

Abstract:

To evaluate the connectivity reliability of key nodes under the effect of correlative extreme events in the maritime transportation network of crude oil, the vine copula is proposed to construct the joint probability distribution, and the connectivity reliability is evaluated based on the joint and conditional probability distribution. Finally, the Strait of Malacca is illustrated as a case study. The results show that there is a symmetric tail dependence between the political instability or military conflict and the pirates and maritime terrorism. While there is a lower tail dependence between the pirates and maritime terrorism, the vessel accidents and the heavy weather, respectively. Besides, under the effect of political instability or military conflict, heavy weather and pirates and maritime terrorism, the connectivity reliability of the Strait of Malacca is low, which is only 0.239 5. While under the effect of political instability or military conflict, heavy weather and vessel accidents, the connectivity reliability is relatively high.

Key words: waterway transportation, connectivity reliability, vine copula, key nodes, maritime transportation network of crude oil

中图分类号:

U698

王爽，吕靖，赖成寿. 基于Vine Copula的原油海运网络中节点连通可靠性研究[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2018, 18(4): 32-37.

WANG Shuang, LV Jing, LAI Cheng-shou. Connectivity Reliability of Nodes in the Maritime Transportation Network of Crude Oil Based on Vine Copulas[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2018, 18(4): 32-37.

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http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/Y2018/V18/I4/32

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基于Vine Copula的原油海运网络中节点连通可靠性研究

Connectivity Reliability of Nodes in the Maritime Transportation Network of Crude Oil Based on Vine Copulas

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