基于变权可拓物元和证据理论的收费公路PPP项目风险预警

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2018, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (5): 5-11.

基于变权可拓物元和证据理论的收费公路PPP项目风险预警

潘琰^*，毛腾飞

福州大学经济与管理学院，福州 350116

收稿日期:2018-04-27 修回日期:2018-07-26 出版日期:2018-10-25 发布日期:2018-10-26
作者简介:潘琰(1955-)，女，福建福州人，教授，博士.
基金资助:
国家社科基金/National Social Science Foundation of China(14BGL045)；福建省社科规划重大项目/Fujian Province Social Science Planning Major Program(2016JDZ028).

Toll Road PPP Project Risk Early Warning Based on Variable Weight Extension Matter-element and Evidence Theoies

PAN Yan, MAO Teng-fei

School of Economics and Management, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou 350116, China

Received:2018-04-27 Revised:2018-07-26 Online:2018-10-25 Published:2018-10-26

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

“风险”是影响PPP项目顺利落地和高效运行的重要因素，适时掌握其风险状况对项目的成功至关重要.针对收费公路PPP项目，在文献研究和问卷调查的基础上，构建其风险预警指标体系，并设计了一套基于变权可拓物元和证据理论的风险预警模型.首先，采用变权可拓物元理论进行建模，计算不同专家视阈下的项目风险综合关联度，并进行归一化处理得到基本信度函数；然后，运用折扣系数法对其进行修正，采用证据理论合成修正后的基本信度函数，得到最终预警结果.以F省某收费公路PPP项目为例进行风险预警，验证该模型的合理性和有效性，为收费公路PPP项目风险预警提供借鉴.

关键词: 交通运输经济, 风险预警, 变权可拓物元理论, 证据理论, 收费公路PPP项目

Abstract:

Risk is an important factor that affects the smooth landing and efficient operation of PPP project, and it is of vital importance for the success of the project to master its risk situation timely. For toll road PPP project, on the basis of literature study and questionnaire survey, the paper constructs the risk early warning index system, and designs a set of risk early warning model based on variable weight extension matter-element and evidence theories. Firstly, a model is built using the variable weight extension matter-element theory, the comprehensive correlation degree of project risk under different experts' perspective is calculated, and the basic reliability function is got after normalization processing. Then, the model is validated by discount coefficient method, and using the evidence theory to synthesize the basic reliability function, the final warning results is got. Taking a toll road PPP project in F provincial as a case to verify the model’s rationality and validity, which can provide reference for the risk early warning of toll road PPP project.

Key words: transportation economy, risk early warning, variable weight extension matter-element theory, evidence theory, toll road PPP project

中图分类号:

F224.11

潘琰，毛腾飞. 基于变权可拓物元和证据理论的收费公路PPP项目风险预警[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2018, 18(5): 5-11.

PAN Yan, MAO Teng-fei. Toll Road PPP Project Risk Early Warning Based on Variable Weight Extension Matter-element and Evidence Theoies[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2018, 18(5): 5-11.

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链接本文: http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/abstract/abstract19688.shtml

http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/Y2018/V18/I5/5

参考文献

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