交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2018, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (6): 125-132.

• 系统工程理论与方法 • 上一篇    下一篇

有限理性用户风险态度对系统效率的影响

魏庆琦 1, 2,肖伟*1   

  1. 1. 重庆交通大学 经济与管理学院,重庆 400074;2. 电子科技大学 经济与管理学院,成都 610054
  • 收稿日期:2018-07-10 修回日期:2018-08-27 出版日期:2018-12-25 发布日期:2018-12-25
  • 作者简介:魏庆琦(1982-),女,重庆万州人,副教授,博士.
  • 基金资助:

    国家社会科学基金/ National Social Science Fund of China(13CGL151).

Impact of Bonded Rationality Users’ Risk Attitude on Network Efficiency

WEI Qing-qi1, 2, XIAO Wei1   

  1. 1. School of Economics and Management, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 400074, China; 2. School of Management and Economics, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 610054, China
  • Received:2018-07-10 Revised:2018-08-27 Online:2018-12-25 Published:2018-12-25

摘要:

为研究有限理性用户风险态度对随机退化路网均衡和系统效率的影响,构建了考虑路网能力退化的连续风险态度双参考点用户均衡(CPV_UE)模型和系统效率分析模型,证明了解的存在性,并设计了嵌套求解算法.模型从外部客观随机性(随机能力退化路网)和个体主观随机性(双参考点累积前景出行效用)两方面对交通网络均衡状态进行定义、划分与分析. 最后以Nguyen & Dupuis路网为例,分析了连续风险态度对网络均衡和系统效率的影响.研究验证了保守用户在网络均衡时感受到的价值更低的特点,也发现保守用户群体在均衡时流量分布更分散.同时发现,虽然CPV_UE比系统最优均衡行程时间期望大,但其标准差较小,行程时间可靠性更高.

关键词: 城市交通, 连续风险态度, 双参考点, 累积前景理论, 网络均衡

Abstract:

This paper develops two models to evaluate the effects of users’ risk attitude on the assignment and system efficiency of user equilibrium with both stochastic degradation network and bonded rationality users: one is a user equilibrium model based on cumulative perceived value (CPV_UE) and stochastic degradation network, and another is a system efficiency analysis model. Then, we prove the existence of the solution, and design a nested heuristic algorithm to resolve the model. The potential sources of uncertainty of CPV_UE model are defined, analyzed and classified into two groups: those that are from the objective external world (stochastic degradation network) and those that are from the individual subjective (cumulative perceived value based on double reference points). In the end, a numerical example based on the Nguyen & Dupuis network is conducted to analyze the effect of risk attitude on the assignment and system efficiency of CPV_UE equilibrium. This paper shows that risk-averse users gained lower CPV and assigned more diffuse than risk- seeking users in CPV_UE equilibrium. Moreover, parameters of both the CPV_UE Equilibrium and the System Optimum Equilibrium are compared: even though the CPV_UE system travel time expectation is longer, but its standard deviations is smaller, which means that the travel time of CPV_UE is more reliable.

Key words: urban traffic, continuous risk attitude, double reference points, cumulative prospect, user equilibrium

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