交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2018, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (6): 187-193.

• 系统工程理论与方法 • 上一篇    下一篇

机场场面交通冲突风险演化的SD模型研究

肖琴,罗帆*   

  1. 武汉理工大学 管理学院,武汉 430070
  • 收稿日期:2018-07-11 修回日期:2018-09-15 出版日期:2018-12-25 发布日期:2018-12-25
  • 作者简介:肖琴(1990-),女,湖北孝感人,博士生.
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金/National Nature Science Foundation of China (71271163).

SD Model of Risk Evolution for Airport Surface Traffic Conflict

XIAO Qin, LUO Fan   

  1. School of Management, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430070, China
  • Received:2018-07-11 Revised:2018-09-15 Online:2018-12-25 Published:2018-12-25

摘要:

为深入研究机场场面交通冲突风险的演化过程,在对机场场面冲突风险影响因素分析的基础上,明确了风险因素间的作用关系;构建包括人员风险、设备设施风险、环境风险、管理风险4个子系统的机场场面交通冲突风险演化的系统动力学模型(SD);采用专家咨询法确定场面冲突风险、人员风险、设备设施风险、环境风险、管理风险的预警级别;对不同情境下的策略进行仿真,揭示场面交通冲突风险演化规律.仿真结果表明:基准情境下场面冲突风险、人员风险和管理风险的警情较严重,设备设施风险和环境风险的警情较轻;完善场面监管机制、建设机场安全文化、规范员工职业发展通道、引进新设备设施能有效缓解各类风险.研究结果对于预防机场场面交通冲突风险,提高机场安全管理水平具有重要参考价值.

关键词: 航空运输, 预警仿真, 系统动力学, 机场场面, 交通冲突, 风险演化

Abstract:

To study the evolution process of airport surface traffic conflict risk, the causal relationship of airport surface conflict risk factors are analyzed based on the analysis of risk factors. The system dynamics (SD) model, including four subsystems: human risk, equipment risk, environment risk, management risk, of traffic conflict risk evolution in the airport surface is built. Risk warning level and threshold are determined by using the expert consultation method. Evolutionary rules of surface traffic conflict risks are revealed by simulating strategies under different scenarios. The simulation results show that warning condition of surface conflict risk, human risk and management risk decease in the baseline scenario are severe, and the warning condition of equipment risk and environment risk are not serious; perfecting the surface supervision mechanism, constructing airport safety culture, standardizing career development channels for employees, and introducing new equipment and facilities can effectively relieve various risks. The research results have important reference value for the airport to prevent the conflict risk and improve the safety management level.

Key words: air transportation, early warning simulation, system dynamics, airport surface, traffic conflict, risk evolution

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