道路交通统计生命价值测算模型及其验证

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2019, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (5): 198-204.

道路交通统计生命价值测算模型及其验证

刘文歌^*

大连交通大学经济管理学院，辽宁大连 116028

收稿日期:2019-03-22 修回日期:2019-04-24 出版日期:2019-10-25 发布日期:2019-10-25
作者简介:刘文歌(1981-)，女，辽宁大连人，副教授，博士.
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金/National Natural Science Foundation of China(51608088)；教育部人文社会科学青年基金/ The Youth Program of Humanities and Social Sciences of the Ministry of Education(16YJC630075)；辽宁省社会科学规划基金/ Social Science Planning Fund of Liaoning Province(L15BGL003).

Estimation Model and Verification on Value of Statistical Life in Road Traffic Based on Mixed Logit Model with SB Distribution

LIU Wen-ge

School of Economics and Management, Dalian Jiaotong University, Dalian 116028, Liaoning, China

Received:2019-03-22 Revised:2019-04-24 Online:2019-10-25 Published:2019-10-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于参数服从SB分布的混合Logit 模型进行道路交通统计生命价值的测算研究. 首先，结合意愿选择法和正交实验法设计出行路径选择调查问卷；然后，基于死亡风险系数服从对数正态分布和SB分布的混合Logit 模型，构建统计生命价值测算模型；接着以大连市私家车出行者为调查对象获得调查数据，并利用Monte Carlo 仿真方法进行模型参数标定；最后，对模型进行比较分析，并获得统计生命价值的测算值. 研究结果表明：死亡风险参数服从限制域为(0.0, 0.5)SB分布的混合Logit 模型，精确性更高且更合理；道路交通统计生命价值测算值为 105.76万元，这一结果可以作为道路交通安全项目经济评价的参考数据.

关键词: 城市交通, 统计生命价值, 意愿选择法, 混合Logit模型, SB分布, 蒙特卡洛仿真

Abstract:

The value of a statistical life (VOSL) in road traffic is estimated based on the mixed Logit (ML) model with the parameter obeying to SB distribution. Firstly, the route-choice questionnaire is designed combined with the stated choice method (SCM) and the orthogonal experiment method. Then the VOSL model is established based on ML models with the fatal risk parameter obeying to lognormal distribution and SB distribution. Then the parameters are calibrated by Monte Carlo using the survey data regarding Dalian private drivers as respondents. Finally, the ML models are comparatively analyzed with VOSL estimates obtained. The research results indicate: the ML model supposing the fatal risk parameter obeying to SB Distribution within (0.0, 0.5) is more accurate and reasonable. The VOSL is estimated as 1 057 600 RMB, which can be used as a reference to appraise road safety programs.

Key words: urban traffic, value of a statistical life, stated choice method, mixed Logit model, SB distribution, Monte Carlo simulation

中图分类号:

U491.4

刘文歌. 道路交通统计生命价值测算模型及其验证[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2019, 19(5): 198-204.

LIU Wen-ge. Estimation Model and Verification on Value of Statistical Life in Road Traffic Based on Mixed Logit Model with SB Distribution[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2019, 19(5): 198-204.

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http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/Y2019/V19/I5/198

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