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25 December 2016, Volume 16 Issue 6 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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Maximum Concave Envelope Theory Based Dynamic Pricing for Railway Passenger Transportation ZHANG Xiao-qiang,LI Yua,HUANG Shuai-xun,ZHANG Hui 2016, 16(6): 1-8.  Abstract ( )   PDF (2014KB) ( )   There are some flaws with fixed pricing strategy for railway passenger transportation. In this paper, a discrete multi- dimension Markov decision model, which is applied for high- speed railway passenger transportation, is provided for dynamic pricing. The model was solved by maximum concave envelope theory. It is demonstrated that potential passenger demand and income are positively correlated theoretically. The longer sales term will lead to higher expected revenue. The provided model is evaluated by the Beijing- Shanghai high- speed railway transportation. The simulation results show that railway operator can get higher revenue without extra cost. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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An Adjustment Strategy of Railway Tickets Usage LI Zhu-jun, MAO Bao-hua, BAI Yun, CHEN Yao, YANG Yuan-zhou 2016, 16(6): 9-14.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1636KB) ( )   The railway sectors usually set aside a certain amount of tickets unsold for possible confidential or emergency travel needs. Due to randomness of the demand for the flexible use and non- storage of transport products, the reserved tickets will be sold at a time before the train departure to avoid waste of service resource. Based on additional benefits of reserved tickets and expected demands of tickets for flexible and public use, this paper proposes a model on adjustment strategy of railway tickets usage to maximize the expected revenue of railway enterprises. A dynamic decision-making approach is designed to solve the proposed model. The numerical example indicates that the proposed model is able to explain the relationship between the adjustment timing and the total benefits accurately and the proposed approach has high computational efficiency and strong operability, which leads to 14.3 percent increase in total benefits than expected and 33.3 percent increase in total benefits by the existed adjustment strategy. This provides theoretical support for scientific ticket management References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Research on Railway Express Freight Product Pricing Methodology Based on Elastic Demand WANG Dan-zhu, LIANG Xiao-kang, LANG Mao-xiang, SUN Yan 2016, 16(6): 15-21.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1208KB) ( )   A scientific and reasonable pricing strategy will efficiently improve the economic benefits and market competitiveness of railway transportation enterprises. Considering dynamic relationships between product price and customer requirements, a multi-objective bi-level programming model for railway express freight product pricing based on elastic demand is proposed: the maximization of railway transportation enterprise profit and the minimization of transportation system’s carbon emissions are considered as objective functions in the upper level model; and the lower level is a traditional Wardrop User Equilibrium (UE) model to assign customer demands among different freight products. Furthermore, a solution algorithm on the basis of sensitivity analysis is designed to solve the problem. At last, the feasible and scientific of the bi- level programming model is demonstrated by a numerical example. The results show that the elastic demand oriented railway express freight product pricing model is simple, accurate and reliable. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Attraction Model of High-speed Railway Comprehensive Passenger Hub CHEN Jian，HUO Ya-min，WU Dan，ZHAO Han-lin 2016, 16(6): 22-26.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1317KB) ( )   In order to solve the problem of the lack of direct visual and quantitative comprehensive evaluation index and model for a large number of newly built high-speed railway passenger hub, the concept of hub attraction for describing the capacity of the hub to attract passenger flow is put forward, through direct and indirect passenger flow systematically forecast the amount of passenger flow of the hub and the surrounding area. Regarding the value maximization of the hub function as the objective function, then the optimal service radius under the cost and the capacity constraints is determined, and the hub attractiveness analysis method is established. Finally, taking the comprehensive transportation hub of west railway station building in Chongqing as an example, and calculating that in 2020 and 2030 the total passenger traffic are 135 270 person- time and 210 810 person- time, meanwhile, the attractive force are 17 815 100 person-time ⋅ km/day and 21 797 800 person-time· km/day in 2020 and 2030, so a new comparable method for the objective measurement of the value of the hub and its contribution to urban development is proposed. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Analysis of the Impacts of Hubs Delay on Rail-road Intermodal Transport TANG Ji-meng, SUN Quan-xin, ZHAO Xin-miao, ZENGWei 2016, 16(6): 27-32.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1436KB) ( )   Hubs delay which may result in exceeding the deadline of goods damages the competitiveness of rail- road intermodal transport, although intermodal transport inherits the advantages of rail and road transport. From the perspective of strategic level, we model the choice of transport schemes on rail- road intermodal network, considering the two factors of transport time and transport fares concerned by shippers. This model can be used to analyze the impacts of hubs delay on rail- road intermodal network quantificationally, and give managers a decision support. Numerical example analysis shows that the competitiveness of rail- road intermodal transport for lower value goods increases significantly with hubs’ capacities increasing, but not significantly for higher value goods. The higher value that the goods possess, the higher capacity is needed to improve the competitiveness of intermodal for these goods. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Dominant Transportation Distance for Multi Transportation Modes in Regional Integrated Freight Network XIANG Yun，WANGWei，ZHENG Dun-yong，WANG Bao-jie， 2016, 16(6): 33-39.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1454KB) ( )   A new quantitative analysis method of dominant transportation distance based on mode split rate is developed to compute the dominant transportation distance in the integrated transportation system that include the highway, railway, waterway, and airway, which can contribute to the rational allocation of transport resources. First of all, the absolute and relative dominant transportation distance of freight transportation modes are defined. Then, the absolute and relative dominant transportation distance models of each freight transportation mode are established on the base of mode split rate. Finally, a case study of proposed method is carried out, the result of which indicated that the absolute dominant transportation distance ranges of highway, railway and waterway are 50~477 km, 477~1 168 km and 1 168~3 000 km, while the airway did not have an absolute dominant transportation distance in this range. The relative dominant transportation distance range of highway, railway, waterway and airway are 50~303 km, 526~1 004 km, 2 410~3 000 km, and 1 681~2 283 km. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Impact of Market Structure and Subsidies on Cost Efficiency and Service Effectiveness of Public Transport ZHANG Yu, HUANG Cheng-feng, XU Mao-zeng 2016, 16(6): 40-46.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1563KB) ( )   Market structure and public transport subsidies are the important issues in public transport industry. It is studied in this paper that the impact of market structure and subsidies on the cost efficiency and service efficiency of public transport using stochastic frontier analysis method and annual data of 33 cities in China from 1990 to 2013. The research shows that the effect of public transport subsidies on cost efficiency and service efficiency are all positive, and the effect of subsidies on public transport is more significant. It presents an inverted "U" type relationship between subsidy ratio and cost efficiency and also service effect, and reach to the highest when its ratio in the 5%~10% range, which shows that the appropriate subsidies to improve the efficiency of public transport has a positive effect. Public transport market structure under the guidance of state- owned has a negative effect on cost efficiency and positive on service effectiveness of public transport. But the cost efficiency and service efficiency of state- owned transit firm are higher than private firm. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Optimization of Channel Access Protocols and Performance Evaluation in Cooperative Vehicle Infrastructure Environment SHANGGUANWei, SHI Bin，CAI Bai-gen，WANG Jian 2016, 16(6): 47-53.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1783KB) ( )   Safe and efficient operation of the vehicle is affected by the accuracy of the information in Cooperative Vehicle Infrastructure Environment. In order to reduce the occurrence of the channel conflict of information interaction process in Cooperative Vehicle Infrastructure Environment, the IEEE 802.11p’s channel access protocol and the mechanism of Enhanced Distributed Channel Access (EDCA) are studied. And the traditional EDCA model protocol’s handshake mechanism and RTS and CTS control frames’ content are optimized. In addition, the back off algorithm of contention window of CVIS is designed. then a more reasonable adaptive back off algorithm which can reflect traffic characters based on contention window is proposed, and it’s called ATEDCA. In order to verify and compare the communication performance of ATEDCA and EDCA in CVIS, three simulation scenarios are designed in OPNET Modeler and they are scenario of different vehicle densities, scenario of different transmission distances and scenario of different vehicle velocities. The results indicate that ATEDCA’s transmission delay decreased by 10.1% compared to EDCA and its throughput increased by 7.5% compared to EDCA, and the back off slots of ATEDCA decreased by 30.6% than EDCA’s in standard scenario. All in all, ATEDCA can reduce the likelihood of message channel conflict effectively. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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VMS Location Model and Simulation Based on the One-way Traffic Organization GAO He, ZHANG Bo 2016, 16(6): 54-59.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1382KB) ( )   Traffic route guidance and one-way traffic organization are important measures of the regional traffic micro-circulation. In view of these two kinds of management disjointed problem. In order to improve the regional transportation efficiency, it puts forward a model of the optimized location information board combined with one-way traffic organization optimization model. The genetic algorithm is used to solve the model, and the optimal placement of VMS is obtained. On this basis, it combines with the example of Harbin City Jingwei Street Area. Firstly to organize the one-way traffic of the area, select the effective planning path in the OD and calculate the location of the maximum efficiency of the information board. Then using VISSIM simulation software to compare the effect before and after of traffic micro-circulation organization. The simulation results show that: in the case of the use of the two traffic management means in one-way traffic organization and route guidance, the load degree of main road and branch in the area is increased while the travel time of the regional road network is reduced by 7.8%, the delay is reduced by 15.2%. It has reached the goal of improving the capacity of the overall regional road network. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A New Cellular Automata Model for Pedestrian Evacuation Considering Guiding Effects GAO Feng-qiang, YAN Yu-yue, XU Ce, LIN Li-xia, REN Huan, PEI Jun-zhi 2016, 16(6): 60-66.  Abstract ( )   PDF (2001KB) ( )   Due to the lack of modeling pedestrian behaviors under multi- exit evacuation guidance, this paper proposes a new cellular automaton model aiming to reproduce the behaviors impacted by such guiding effects. The proposed model introduces the wireless communication theory and calculates the reliability of guidance signal to quantify the guiding force. To reflect the micro characteristics of pedestrians, the visible exit- attraction, obstacles repulsion, pedestrian attraction and repulsion are also considered in the model. Then, the evacuation procedures are simulated to obtain the relation between evacuation time and initial pedestrian density, expected speed respectively. In addition, effects of guide coefficient on internal conflict in pedestrians with differently initial pedestrian density are discussed in this paper. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed model can reflect the micro characteristic and basic phenomenon of pedestrian behaviors under multi-exit evacuation guidance. The present study is helpful for evaluating and optimizing evacuation guiding strategies in multi-exit pedestrian flow evacuation. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Real-time Queue Length Estimation for Signalized Intersections Using GPS Data WANG Yu，XU Jian-min，LIN Pei-qun 2016, 16(6): 67-73.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1329KB) ( )   To estimate time-dependent queue length problem at signalized intersection is a challenging task for a long time, which will be more difficult if fixed-location sensors are unavailable at these intersections. In this paper, it is studied that the key technologies on how to use GPS data to estimate real time queue lengths at signalized intersections. A real time queue length estimation model is presented based on traffic shockwave theory and the concept of "discharging delay" is first put forward. Utilizing the real time estimation model and the "discharging delays" data of a few queuing vehicles, it can be computed that realtime queue length estimations cycle-by-cycle. In the end the model and algorithm is tested in a real intersection of Guangzhou city. The testing results show that the proposed model and algorithm can estimate queue lengths with satisfactory accuracy. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Traffic Control Model Based on Efficiency and Fuel Consumption of the Road Network ZHANGWei-hua, CHEN Sen, DING Heng 2016, 16(6): 74-80.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1530KB) ( )   In order to reduce energy consumption of the transportation system and meet the trip demand of the residents as possible. It is necessary to consider improving traffic efficiency under the condition of reducing vehicle fuel consumption. For the question, the average fuel consumption of the vehicles and macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD) are introduced to establish the double- objective programming model, which makes the trip completion flow high but the average fuel consumption low, and the model is solved. Fuel consumption-proportional integral (FC-PI) control method is proposed based on the feedback principle and the equilibrium equations of the traffic flow, reducing the average fuel consumption of the vehicles in the region through the FC-PI control method, and improving the trip completion flow. Finally, the fuel consumption control model is verified by the actual urban road network as a case study, which is compared with the control method of Bang-Bang. The result shows that the trip completion flow is improved and the average fuel consumption of the vehicles is reduced significantly. And the control effect of FC-PI is better than Bang-Bang. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Collision Avoidance Path Planning with Consideration of Driver Intention and Dynamic Traffic Situation PENG Li-qun, WU Chao-zhong, HUANG Zhen, CHUWen-hui, HE Yi 2016, 16(6): 81-87.  Abstract ( )   PDF (2183KB) ( )   Aim to improve the efficiency and flexibility of vehicle active collision avoidance system, a novel path planning methodology for vehicle collision avoidance is proposed in this paper, in which, dynamic traffic conditions, driver intention and vehicle dynamic constraints are comprehensively considered. The proposed road potential field model takes three advantages when comparing with traditional artificial potential field model. Firstly, several local targets are set up to ensure travelling path avoidance of trapping into local minimum potential. Secondly, motion states of road dynamic obstacles are predicted, combined with the grid algorithm, the traditional repulsion field model is modified to ensure that the vehicle motion along the programmed path can effectively prevent collision accidents in maximum degree. Thirdly, the symmetric polynomials method is applied and shortest travel nodes are calculated to smooth the path for meeting the requirement of vehicle dynamic characteristics. The results show that the proposed method can lead vehicle motion away from local minimum potential position. Compared with traditional artificial potential field model, the maximum collision risk value is 55.1% lower by using the improved model calculated trajectory, and the programmed trajectory can comprehensively satisfy the condition of vehicle dynamic restriction and motion performance, and the design results are reasonable. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Lane-changing Model Analysis on the Half Transition Period YANG Xiao-fang, DING Shen-zhen, FU Qiang 2016, 16(6): 88-93.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1350KB) ( )   The existing research about the process of lane changing is generally focused on the process after the vehicle enters the target lane. Based on NGSIM data, behavior of the rear vehicle on the target lane is influenced by both the front vehicle and the lane changing vehicle during the half transition period. For this, the lane changing process is divided into four stages in this paper, and the half transition period and relaxation period are distinguished, to analysis the process before the vehicle enters the target lane. Besides, in order to accurately grasp the effect of lane changing on the rear vehicle, attention balance factor changing with the lateral alteration of the vehicle is introduced. At last, the model is checked by the method of vehicle trajectory, and the results of Std. Error and MAPE fully reflect the rationality and superiority of the model. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Prediction Method of Railway Freight Volumes Using GRA and SVM-mixed LIANG Ning, GENG Li-yan, ZHANG Zhan-fu, LIANG Yi-gang 2016, 16(6): 94-99.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1336KB) ( )   The relationship between railway freight volumes and its influence factors is complex. It is difficult for support vector machines with single kernel function (SVM) to describe the complex relationship. At the same time, the impact of the factors on railway freight volumes is different. If we ignored this difference, it would be difficult to obtain the desired predicting results of railway freight volumes. To solve these problems, this paper proposes a novel method for predicting railway freight volumes based on grey relational analysis (GRA) and SVM with mixed kernel function (SVM- mixed). The weights of influence factors of railway freight volume are determined by GRA. Being as the input variables, the influence factors with weights are used to construct SVM- mixed whose kernel function combined polynomial kernel with radial basis kernel. Fruit fly optimization algorithm (FOA) is adopted to adjust the parameters in SVM-mixed to solve the problem of parameters selection of SVM-mixed. The example analysis of China railway freight volumes shows that the proposed method can effectively enhance accuracy in forecasting railway freight volumes, which provides a new approach for the accurate forecasting of railway freight volumes. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Optimization of Railway Express Organization Based on Unitized Logistics ZHOU Kang，HE Shi-wei，SONG Rui，LI Hao-dong 2016, 16(6): 100-107.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1858KB) ( )   Railway express is the inevitable trend to adapt to the social logistics development, reasonable express organization can enhance the transport service quality and market competitiveness. Initial network of railway freight transportation is constructed by using discrete time network method. Based on the traditional transportation, the demand for containerization appliances and the effects of using the containerization appliances are considered. Because of the uncertainty of lose and damage of goods during transportation, probability theory and stochastic constraints are applied to describe the damage and lose of goods in different transport service modes. Based on the meeting of freight demand, the minimum total costs of transportation including transport cost, handling cost and other costs are taken as the object to build the optimization model, and the constraint of shipping time is considered to optimize the initial network. Through the treatment of determination for the stochastic constraints, Cplex optimization software is used to solve the model. The reliability and rationality of the method are verified by a case. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Timetable Synchronization Optimization for Urban Rail Transit in the Last Trains’Hour NING Li-qiao, ZHAO Peng, XUWen-kai, QIAO Ke, YAO Xiang-ming 2016, 16(6): 108-114.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1376KB) ( )   The content of timetable synchronization in the last period includes not only a guarantee on network accessibility, but also a reduction on transfer waiting time. Given that the connection relationships among trains are unfixed, binary variables are introduced along with penalty coefficients to provide an accurate representation of the transfer relationship of passengers in network. By adjusting trains running times, station dwell times and headways among trains, a model can construct high-quality timetables of the last trains’hour that minimize transfer waiting times with the distribution characteristics of transfer passengers. Then the CPLEX is used to solve the model. Finally, an empirical analysis of Beijing rail transit network is made to invalidate the validity and accuracy. Results show that: the model can improve the synchronization significantly compared with the current timetable; and it can provide a decision support to network operation in urban rail transit network. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Corrected Entropy Based Operation Performance Evaluation about Urban Rail Transportation Non-networks System HUANGWen-cheng, SHUAI Bin, ZUO Jing,WANG Lei, MAO Jie 2016, 16(6): 115-121.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1254KB) ( )   The regular urban rail transit system performance evaluation process has important function on obtaining the best operation mode. In this paper, we establish an urban transit non- network system performance evaluation system after analyzing its characteristics. Then translation corrected distance entropy based method is applied to calculate the coefficients, the information loss tolerance coefficient is used to control the information loss within a reasonable range. Kunming Urban Rail Transit System case study shows that the established indexes are suitable to describe the metro’s operation characteristics, train operation diagram adjustments would significantly affect the operating performance. Translation corrected based distance entropy can overcome the inherent deficiencies of ordinary entropy method, reduce the uncertainty caused by human evaluation and improve the reliability of performance evaluation. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Optimization Model and Solution Algorithm for the Shunting Schedule of Electrical Multiple Units Depot WANG Jia-xi, LIN Bo-liang,WANG Zhong-kai, LI Jian 2016, 16(6): 122-127.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1281KB) ( )   It’s an urgent problem to develop and optimize the shunting schedule of electrical multiple units (EMU) depot through automatic computation since the schedule making process is extremely intractable. Based on the analysis of typical procedures of EMU first-level maintenance, this paper formulates the depot shunting schedule optimization problem as an integer programming model. The objective of the model is to minimize the total number of shunting movements and the constraints include track occupation conflicts, route (including shunting route, receiving route and departure route) conflicts and time duration of each maintenance process, etc. Then a PSO- based optimization algorithm is presented to solve the problem. Finally, a case study from Shanghai South EMU Depot is carried out to illustrate the validity of the proposed model and algorithm. The computational results show that an optimal shunting schedule can be obtained within a short solution time using our method. Moreover, both the making efficiency of dispatchers and the quality of schedules are improved. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Flexible Feeder Transit Route Design in Complex Road Network LU Xiao-lin1, PAN Shu-liang2, ZOU Nan1 2016, 16(6): 128-134.  Abstract ( )   PDF (2267KB) ( )   To solve the flexible feeder transit route design problem in complex road network where exists separated two-way roads and one-way roads, a new operational mode is presented, which is capable of letting operating feeder buses temporarily deviate from their current route so as to serve passengers on both street sides. In addition, a transit route design model is proposed with an objective of minimizing total bus travel time. When multiple feeder buses are operating in the target service area, the proposed model can provide an optimal plan to locate the nearest one to response to the demands. A three-stage solution algorithm is also developed to improve solution efficiency by transforming the problem into a Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP). Numerical studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed model as well as the heuristic solution approach, the proposed algorithm can yield meta-optimal solutions to the problem in a reasonable amount of time. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Analyzing Methods of Residents’Travel Characteristics Considering Travel Patterns and Periodicity HE Zhao-cheng，YU Chang，XU Min-xing 2016, 16(6): 135-141.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1932KB) ( )   Public transit services carry the majority travel demand of urban residents. There is an urgent need for transit authorities to make a better understanding of the travel characteristics of transit riders. Recently, data from smart cards have become a new source of travel survey data, providing more comprehensive spatial-temporal information about urban public transport trips. In this paper, a methodology considering travel patterns and periodicity is developed to analyze the travel characteristics of residents. The individual trip information is firstly obtained based on smart card data and transit riders’trip chains are identified. The DBSCAN clustering algorithm is applied to examine transit riders’historical travel patterns. And a methodology is then proposed for analyzing the travel periodicity based on travel patterns. Finally Kmeans++ algorithm is applied to cluster and evaluate the travel regularities of transit riders. In case study, focused on the transit riders of Guangzhou City, the analysis of travel characteristics are conducted. The results proved the effectiveness of the proposed method. The information mined through the method is of great significant for improving transit service strategies. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Bus Arrival Time Prediction Based on Particle Filter REN Yuan, LV Yong-bo, MAJi-hui, CHEN Xin-jie, YU Ming-jie 2016, 16(6): 142-146.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1434KB) ( )   Providing accurate bus arrival time (BAT) can help to improve the service quality of a transit system, enhance bus attractiveness and ease traffic jams. BAT is greatly influenced by the complex road conditions, particle filter algorithm can be well applied to this kind of nonlinear and non-Gaussian systems. Therefore, a BAT based on particle filter algorithm prediction model (BAT-PF) is proposed tentatively. Then, based on the location data, a case study of the inner line 300 of Beijing is conducted. Bus arrival time during the morning peak hours and off-peak hours are forecasted by both the BAT-PF and the Kalman filter (KF). The results show that the BAT-PF is more applicable and stable to predict bus arrival time and has a higher accuracy. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Customer-search Destination Selection Behavior of Taxi Driver Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior SI Yang1, 2, GUAN Hong-zhi1, 2 2016, 16(6): 147-152.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1211KB) ( )   Based on the theory of planned behavior, this paper studies the customer- search destination selection behavior of taxi drivers. Three typical destinations are selected that including the business district, residential area and airport area. In this research, we explore the influence of the personal psychological factors including attitude, subjective norm, behavioral control and destination choice intention on the destination selection behavior. The results show that the attitude evaluation on the destination is the critical factor influencing the willingness of the drivers to head for this destination to search customers. Among the three destination types, residential area is the most frequent place to search for customers. Research results can provide the technical support for learning the taxi operation rules and improving the efficiency of empty taxi. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Parking Lots Distribution Model for the Individual Demand DUAN Man-zhen，CAO Hui-yun，DONG Bo，LI Shan-shan 2016, 16(6): 153-159.  Abstract ( )   PDF (2400KB) ( )   The conception of personalized parking guidance and service process are defined in order to make up for the drawback of public parking guidance. A parking lot distribution model based on the personalized parking guidance is proposed. The upper- level of the model is to achieve the balance use of parking resources in peak time and avoid local parking congestion, while the lower-level problem is to obtain minimize walking distances, achieve the maximum benefits of the drivers. A nested optimization algorithm of the bi-level programming model is designed based on the deformation particle swarm optimization (PSO), the main body of the optimization algorithm is used to solve the upper-level problem, a nested algorithm is used to solve the lower- level programming. In the simulation experiment, the maximum parking spillover index in peak time is reduced from 0.257 to 0.195 and congestion time is reduced from 5.67 hours to 3.67 hours. The results indicate that the parking lots distribution model, which based on the personalized parking guidance, has obvious effects in balance using parking resources, shorting the parking congestion and reducing peak parking index. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Modeling of Operating Mode for Evaluation of Road Emissions XU Yao-fang, YU Lei, SONG Guo-hua 2016, 16(6): 160-168.  Abstract ( )   PDF (2244KB) ( )   The research in this paper analyzes the relationship between VSP and the instantaneous speed based on the vehicle activity data collected in Beijing, and develops the distribution model of average speeds corresponding to the operating mode parameters needed for the estimation of vehicle emissions. Finally, a comparative analysis between the operating mode distributions from the proposed model and MOVES with that from the real-world data is completed. For HC, NOx and CO, the errors generated are 6.9%, 0.6% and 0.3% by proposed model, which are closer to the real-world data than MOVES. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Charging Station Location Problem with Queue and Range in Competitive Multi-site Service System SHAO Sai, GUANWei, BI Jun 2016, 16(6): 169-175.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1277KB) ( )   Reasonable charging station location problem has an important effect on relieving users’range anxiety and popularization of electric vehicles (EVs). Firstly, in terms of improving users' experience, this paper proposes a utility function combining station capacity with deviated distance and allocates charging demand of EVs based on Logit model. And then, with consideration of queuing time in charging stations and EV range constraint, charging station location model in competitive multi-site service system is developed to maximize the total utility. Moreover, the model is solved by immune algorithm. At last, a study case is given. The results show charging station operators not only acquire the optimal location plan, but also real- time adjust the operation scheme to satisfy many charging demand according to the internal status at charging stations and the arrival EVs. In addition, The results of the chosen factor experiment indicate that comparing to the deviated distance, charging capacity plays more important role in the utility function and attracts more users. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Estimation of Dynamic OD Flow Based on Polynomial Trend Model JIANG Zhu, LEI Zhen-yu, LI Shu-bin 2016, 16(6): 176-181.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1607KB) ( )   To more accurately describe the evolution process of dynamic traffic flow, and get an unbiased estimation of state vectors, a novel polynomial trend filtering method is proposed for real dynamic OD matrix estimation on the basis of the polynomial trend model and the Kalman filtering theory in the paper. Firstly, the state variables are defined as the deviations of the actual OD flow from the historical values. These deviations are presented as a stochastic evolution process with a sliding trend. Furthermore, the dynamic OD matrix is estimated and predicated by establishing a polynomial trend filtering model. Finally, a simulation freeway is used as the research object, and a large number of simulation results prove that the performance of the algorithm proposed in this paper is better than the traditional method, and this algorithm can acquire more accurate estimation and prediction information for OD matrix. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Modeling and Solving the Vehicle Routing Problem with Multiple Fuzzy Time Windows YAN Fang,WANG Yuan-yuan 2016, 16(6): 182-188.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1307KB) ( )   Based on the characteristics that the customers could accept service in multiple time periods and the fuzziness of service time periods, this paper deals with the multiple time windows as fuzzy variables and quantifies the customers’satisfaction level according to the membership function of the beginning time to be served, on the basis of the given acceptable satisfaction level, the vehicle routing model with multiple fuzzy time windows is constructed in order to minimize the total cost and maximize the satisfaction level. Then according to the model characteristics, we use the punishment factors to deal with the constraints and apply particle swarm operations to solve the proposed problems. The experimental results show that the effectiveness of proposed algorithm in solving the vehicle routing problems with multiple fuzzy time windows. Comparing the calculated results with the original results, it is found that our proposed model is more effective to reduce the cost of distribution. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Flight Plan Optimization Based on Airport Delay Prediction WUWei-wei, MENG Ting-ting, ZHANG Hao-yu 2016, 16(6): 189-195.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1733KB) ( )   With the rapid development of air transport industry, the problem of flight delay and propagation is becoming more and more serious. In this paper, a Bayesian network model based on flight string is established to simulate the relationship between delay propagation and flight delays, and to indicate the impact of abnormal operation conditions on the reliability of the flight plan. According to the reliability of flight operations, we find out the weak link of string, namely the key airport. And by using the weighted Markov chain model to predict overall delayed state of the key airport, reflecting the impact of airport random factors on the spread of flight delays in the string. Therefore, it is more accurate to predict the flight delay. According to the forecast results, the flight plan is adjusted accordingly, so as to improve the reliability of the flight plan. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Optimization of Aircraft Pushback Decision Based on Discrete Differential Evolution LIU Li-hua, ZHANG Ya-ping, XING Zhi-wei, CHENG Shao-wu 2016, 16(6): 196-203.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1330KB) ( )   Airport congestion is one of the great challenges for the domestic and international airport management department, and it will continue to exist for a long time in the future. In order to improve the control efficiency of aircraft pushback, alleviate the surface congestion, decrease the fuel consumption and CO emission, a control strategy based on discrete differential evolution for aircraft pushback is proposed. First, we carry on a comprehensive analysis of aircraft ground operation cost. Second, we build a double objective optimization model of aircraft ground operation cost and average gate hold time. Third, a new discrete differential evolution algorithm is proposed for aircraft pushback slot allocation. We correct the solution vector which spills over the normal range and restrict it into the search space, and present the corresponding crossover strategy to remove the repeated integer in the solution vectors. At last, the proposed model is applied to the Xinzheng International Airport to study the decision optimization for aircraft pushback. The calculation results confirm the advantages of the proposed model and the algorithm. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Spectral Analysis Model for Cyclical Characteristics of Capesize Dry Bulk Shipping Market CHEN Ji-hong, ZENG Xin, ZHEN Hong, ZHAO Ya, YU Hang 2016, 16(6): 204-209.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1644KB) ( )   International dry bulk shipping market demand is the international economy and trade derivative, a typical cyclical market affected by the impact of eternal environment of world economy and trade. Capesize dry bulk cargo shipping market is the leading part of dry bulk shipping markets, so study on its market cycle is of great importance. Referencing to Fourier transform and spectral analysis theory based on the stability of the sequence test, the paper model the spectrum analysis of shipping market of Capsize dry bulk to deal with the periodicity of it empirically and theoretically. The spectral analysis of shipping market of Capesize dry bulk cycle fluctuation can compare with the importance of different wave length fluctuation and calculate the wave length of the its cycle fluctuation. In the analysis of implicit cycle characteristics of time series, especially when determining the impact of different frequency cycle components to the sequence variation, spectral analysis is a very effective mathematical analysis tools. The results show that the Capesize dry bulk shipping market has obvious periodicity. The most significant period sequence is one year to one and a half year, and the short period is about 5 years. The periodic feature can provide decision-making basis for the vessel investment and market operation of shipping enterprises. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Assessing Air Transportation Enterprise Efficiency Based on Three-stage DEA Model ZHANG Pei-wen, JING Chong-yi, SUN Hong 2016, 16(6): 210-215.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1279KB) ( )   In the light of important position of air transportation enterprise in the civil aviation industry chain and its critical effect to modern economy development, the three-stage DEA model is used to study the efficiency of air transportation enterprise empirically, which overcomes the shortcomings that previous study did not eliminate environmental and stochastic factors. We find that the state-owned airlines are inclined to be less efficient because of being likely to waste resources. After adjusting environmental and stochastic factors through SFA, we find that both pure technology efficiencies have increased, while scale efficiencies have fallen substantially, and the private airlines particularly badly, which illustrates that the domestic air transportation enterprise already has strong resources allocating ability, but no scale economy advantages, especially regional aviation are urgently need to be actively guided and supported by government. Lastly, some policy proposals are put forward. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Urban Road Traffic Conflict and Accident Prediction during the Period of Ice and Snow in Cold Region WU Li-xin，CHENG Guo-zhu，QIN Li-hui，ZHAI Lu-lu 2016, 16(6): 216-221.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1198KB) ( )   In order to predict reasonably the number of urban road traffic accident and then present effective traffic safety guarantee measures, time headway is adopted as judging index of the conflict, and the number of conflicts is adopted as prediction index of traffic accidents. Based on the survey of driving speed and pavement friction coefficient during the period of ice and snow in cold region, thresholds of conflict time corresponding to different speed are calculated. Regression method is adopted, and a model is developed for capturing the interrelation between traffic volume and the number of conflict. According to the relationship between traffic conflict and traffic accident, the relation model is established between traffic volume and the number of accident. Then, predicted values of the number of traffic conflict and accident corresponding to different traffic volume are offered during the period of ice and snow in cold region. It shows that the relation between the number of traffic conflict and traffic volume conforms to Logistic model, and the number of traffic conflict and accident increase with the rising of traffic volume, and the growth trend is from slow to quick and then to slow. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Reliability Study of Resident Trip Survey Conclusions Based on Error Analysis SHI Fei，WANG Yu 2016, 16(6): 222-227.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1122KB) ( )   Resident trip survey is one of the most important survey categories of urban transportation planning, which is mainly conducted via questionnaires, household and sampling surveys at present, whose sampling rate can directly affect the precision or the size of error when arriving at the conclusions of the surveys. This paper firstly introduced the concepts and methods relating to error analysis, such as absolute error, significant digits and error propagation etc., and established the reliability evaluation criteria. Based on the information and main conclusions of the resident trip survey in downtown area of Nanjing in 2011 and 2012, it analyzes the reliability of the data of average numbers and mode structures of resident trip. The results shows that: the key conclusions are not reliable under the current adopted sampling size and sampling rate to investigate resident trip characteristics, and it is difficult to reflect their respective approximate value, as well as to compare the magnitude of the data between different years; the survey sampling rate to meet the precision requirement should be as high as 9%. Finally it is pointed out that the recommended values of sampling rate in some guidelines are lack of scientific support. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Day-to-day Route Choice Behavior Considering Route Preference in a Dogit Model TIAN Li-jun，JIANG Xiao-lan，LIU Tian-liang，ZHAO Yong-xiang 2016, 16(6): 228-235.  Abstract ( )   PDF (1415KB) ( )   Individuals’daily route choice results, is not only related to the perceived route travel time, but also the individuals’personal preference, travel inertia and other factors. In this paper, a dynamic-updating mechanism for route preference based on Dogit model is introduced into the traditional day- to- day route choice model. Three different learning strategies on perceived route travel time are proposed, and the effects of individual route preference on day- to- day route flow evolution track are analyzed and compared. The numerical results show that, in contrast with the static Dogit model, the Logit model always overestimates the route difference owing to ignoring individuals’route preference, to be specific, always overestimates the traffic flow on dominant routes and underestimates the traffic flow on inferior routes. When the individuals’ route preference is dynamically updated, the equilibrium flow always stays between that under Logit model and static Dogit model with same initial parameters. References | Related Articles | Metrics