交通运输系统工程与信息

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2011, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (1): 152-156 .

• 系统工程理论与方法 • 上一篇    下一篇

道路交叉口机动车与行人冲突概率模型研究

沈家军*1;王炜2   

  1. 1. 扬州大学 建筑科学与工程学院，江苏扬州 225009； 2. 东南大学 交通学院，南京 210096
  • 收稿日期:2010-11-05 修回日期:2010-12-08 出版日期:2011-02-25 发布日期:2012-12-20
  • 通讯作者: 沈家军
  • 作者简介:沈家军（1979-），男，江苏扬州人，博士，讲师.
  • 基金资助:

    “十一五”国家科技支撑计划项目（2006BAJ18B07）；江苏省自然科学基金（BK2010316）；江苏省高校自然科学研究项目（10KJB580004）

Study on Conflict Probability Model between Motor Vehicles and Pedestrians at Intersections

SHEN Jia-jun1;WANG Wei2   

  1. 1. College of Civil Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225009, Jiangsu, China;2. School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China
  • Received:2010-11-05 Revised:2010-12-08 Online:2011-02-25 Published:2012-12-20
  • Contact: SHEN Jia-jun

摘要： 为了量化道路交叉口机动车与行人的交通冲突，阐述了机动车与行人发生交通冲突的条件，选取机动车车头时距分布函数、行人穿越机动车临界间隙及行人占用冲突区域时长作为影响冲突概率的3个关键参数；应用摄影测量原理建立了行人数量与行人占用冲突区域时长的函数关系；比较了一定数量行人条件下，行人穿越机动车临界间隙与行人占用冲突区域时长的大小；分析了多排行人同时占用冲突区域的情形；建立了不同构型分布的行人与机动车交通冲突概率模型. 通过具体实例求得了二者冲突概率的具体数值. 结果表明，随着行人流量的增加，冲突概率呈上升的趋势，符合交通流运行的实际状态.

关键词: 交通工程, 冲突概率, 摄影测量原理, 交叉口, 机动车, 行人

Abstract: In order to quantify the traffic conflict between motor vehicles and pedestrians at urban intersections, conditions under which traffic conflict may occur are presented at first, then three critical parameters which influenced traffic conflict probability are selected including distribution law of motor traffic headways, critical gap of pedestrians crossing motor vehicles and occupying duration of pedestrians, afterwards the function relation between amount and occupying duration of pedestrians is constructed with photogrammetry and the critical gap with occupying duration of a certain amount of pedestrians is compared, finally the condition that several rows of pedestrians occupied conflict zone is analyzed and the conflict probability model between difference configurations of pedestrians and motor vehicles is developed. The values of conflict probability is calculated through an actual example. The results indicate that the conflict probability increases with the volume of pedestrians growing, which accords with traffic actual working condition.

Key words: traffic engineering, conflict probability, photogrammetry theory, intersections, motor vehicles, pedestrians

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