关键词: 城市交通, 活动-出行行为, 竞争风险模型, 时间分配, 出行者

Abstract:

The study of the schedule planning of travelers helps to understand the process of travelers’ decisions. Also it is the premise of enacting and implementing traffic management strategy and policy. A competing risk hazard model, which describes simultaneously the duration of the present activity and the choice of the next activity, is presented. The application of the model extended to the field of traditional hazard models which account for only one delete events. The model is estimated based on the survey data of Jilin City, China. The covariates used in the model represent factors that affect activity scheduling. The estimated model suggesting that there is interrelated and constraint relationship between N and N+1 times activities of travelers, Moreover, the strength of that relations are change significantly with type of activities. The competing risk models used in this paper are a useful tool for describing such differences. These fundamental works is help for enriching and expanding the travel behavior analysis theory and method.

Key words: urban traffic, activity-travel behavior, competing risk hazard model, time allocation, travelers