关键词: 交通工程, 短时客流OD估计, 状态空间模型, 城市轨道交通, 行程时间分布

Abstract:

A short- time passenger flow origin- destination matrix estimation model based on state- space approach is proposed for urban rail transit network. An arrive coefficient is specially defined for establishing the relationship between OD flows and in-and out-flows at stations, using the passengers' travel time distribution through statistical analysis of historical automatic fare collection records, then a structured statespace model using station passenger flow split rate as the state variable is proposed. Finally, a numerical example of Beijing subway network is made. The results show that, when the estimation time interval is 15 minutes, the average relative deviations is 35.5%; if the time interval is 30 minutes, the relative deviations is 20.4%; if the time interval is 60 minutes, the relative deviations is 16.3%. Case study validates that the model meets the request of short-time passenger flow estimation for large-scale urban rail transit network and has strong practicability.

Key words: traffic engineering, short- time passenger flow OD estimation, state- space model, urban rail transit, travel time distribution