关键词: 水路运输, 航运网络韧性, 复杂网络, 长三角航运网络, 粤港澳航运网络, 韧性三角理论

Abstract: Major global emergencies such as the pandemic have highlighted the importance of the resilience of shipping networks. This paper constructs a quantitative method to evaluate the resilience of port group shipping networks based on complex network and resilience triangle theory. In this method, the shipping network resilience assessment process is divided into four stages: initial, destruction, recovery, and stability, and four different attack and recovery modes are adopted in order of degree, betweenness, strength, and random, and the three characteristics of network independent paths, network efficiency, and network connectivity are used as the key indicators to measure the resilience of the shipping network of port groups. In this paper, the port groups of the Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao port group are set as examples, and the shipping networks of the two port groups are constructed by ship port call data from January to June 2023 and then compares and analyzes the dynamic of resilience indicators of the two internal shipping network of two port groups under four different attack modes and recovery modes respectively. The results show that the scale of the Yangtze River Delta internal shipping network is much higher than that of GuangdongHong Kong-Macao, but it is more balanced, while it is more obvious that the role of some ports in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao internal shipping network as hub ports. The network independent path resilience and network efficiency resilience of the Yangtze River Delta shipping network are better than those of the Guangdong- Hong Kong-Macao shipping network, the former is 8.4 and 11.8 and the latter is 7.9 and 10.2 respectively. While the network connectivity resilience is 8.3 which is inferior to the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao shipping network with 9.5, and the resilience of the two was the worst in the degree attack mode. The shipping network in the Yangtze River Delta should focus on strengthening the connectivity between ports and the transit capacity of high betweenness ports such as Rugao Port, and the port group of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao should strengthen the hub capacity and channel redundancy of high strength ports such as Victoria Port to improve the resilience of the shipping network of the port group.

Key words: waterway transportation, shipping network resilience, complex network, Yangtze River Delta port group; Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao port group, resilience triangle theory