交通运输系统工程与信息

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2005, Vol. 5 ›› Issue (2): 22-25 .

• 智能交通系统与技术 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于系统动力学模型的超载运输对策绩效仿真

杭文，李旭宏，何杰，顾志康   

  1. 东南大学交通学院，南京 210096
  • 收稿日期:2004-06-24 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2005-04-20 发布日期:2005-04-20

Overloading Countermeasure Performance
Simulation Based on System Dynamo Model

HANG Wen，LI Xu—hong，HE Jie，GU Zhi—kang   

  1. Transportation College，Southeast University，Nanjing 210096，China
  • Received:2004-06-24 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2005-04-20 Published:2005-04-20

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被引次数

40

摘要： 针对目前全国各地超载治理对策不一、治理效果差别较大的现状，本文从系统动力学的角度构建超载治理政策法规、车辆演化、超载行为、社会总成本之间的仿真模型，使用STELLA软件模型并比较不同对策影响下系统社会总成本的变动情况，以便为超载运输相关政策的制定提供理论依据与建议。通过对安徽省公路运输系统政策绩效的仿真模拟，结果表明，推出新的车辆技术标准、载重标准和税费标准是解决公路货运超载运输问题的最优对策，也是政府目前急需解决的关键性问题。

关键词: 超载运输, 系统动力学, 货运, 对策

Abstract: Aim at the regional different countermeasure to overloading and discrepant effects in China now，this paper set up one simulation model on a system of overloading policies，trucks evolution，overloading behavior and social total cost based on the system dynamics mode1．Using the software STELLA ，the paper simulate and compare the fluctuation of social total cost under the different countermeasure in order to provide the theories basis and suggestions relating to overloading for policymakers． By simulating and forecasting the overloading policy performance in Anhui province，one conclusion is concluded that developing the new vehicle technique standard，cargo loading restrict standard and tax standard is the superior countermeasure to resolve the highway overloading trucking problem ，and is also the urgent problem needing resolving by government now.

Key words: overloading, system dynamo, freight, countermeasure