关键词: 城市交通, 统计学习方法, 私车额度, 主成分分析, 概率密度估计

Abstract:

The quota auction of private car licenses is one of the market-based regulatory measures used by the local government to control the vehicle demand. According to the operating rules of the auction market, this paper selects three key elements: the released quotas, the number of bidders and the average prices as an- alytical variables. It studies the system behaviors and the coupling interactions among the key elements with statistical learning methods. By using the principal component analysis, the paper proposes a linear constrain- ing relationship among the key elements, which quantitatively shows that the released quotas play an impor- tant role on effecting and restricting the other two elements. Meanwhile, the probabilistic self-organizing net- work is used to accurately estimate the joint-probability and the conditional-probability distributions of these elements from the limited training samples. Finally, a probability distribution model is developed to describe the behavior of the auction market objectively and quantitatively. Based on the precise characterization of the relationship between the key elements, the paper provides some constructive advice on determining the re- leased quotas, optimizing the auction rules and regulating market order.

Key words: urban transportation, statistical learning method, private car license quota, principal compo- nent analysis, probability density estimation