关键词: 铁路运输, 高速铁路, 客流预测, 模糊预测, OD 表, 推算方法

Abstract:

Forecasting the variation tendency and fluctuation of passenger flows and obtaining OD matrix of passengers in high speed railways are the base of scheming the passenger trains. In view of relative steady variation of passenger flows, the estimation method and process of passenger OD matrix are present combining with China railway transport in this paper. The method is able to reduce the calculated amount of （n2–2n）while ensure the results exactitude. In consideration of day-fluctuation of passengers, the time series forecasting model and method of passengers is put forward based on fuzzy math, and the range of variation of passengers are estimated. Background on a South high speed railway line, sending passengers of stations are estimated in the predictive period and the predictive errors compared to actual data are less than 1%. Based on estimating sending passengers of stations, passenger OD matrix of the line is reckoned.

Key words: railway transportation, high speed railway, passenger flow forecasting, fuzzy prediction, OD matrix, estimation method