交通运输系统工程与信息

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2015, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (1): 23-29.

• 综合交通运输体系论坛 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于生长曲线的中国铁路网生命周期判定

王宇1, 2，帅斌* 1，李季涛2   

  1. 1. 西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院，成都610031；2. 大连交通大学交通运输工程学院，辽宁，大连116028
  • 收稿日期:2014-07-16 修回日期:2014-10-05 出版日期:2015-02-25 发布日期:2016-02-25
  • 作者简介:王宇（1979-），男，吉林省吉林市人，讲师.
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金（71173177）；铁道部科技计划重点项目( 2012X012-F)；辽宁省教育厅项目(L2012156).

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of China’s Railway Network Based on Growth Curve

WANG Yu1,2，SHUAI Bin1，LI Ji-tao2   

  1. 1. School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China；2. School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Dalian Jiaotong University, Dalian 116028, Liaoning, China
  • Received:2014-07-16 Revised:2014-10-05 Online:2015-02-25 Published:2016-02-25

PDF

摘要：

运用生长曲线理论对中国铁路网演化（1949–2020 年）的生命周期进行判定，旨在得到铁路网在时空演化中的周期性变化和生长规律.根据调整拟合优度最大隶属原则，将中国铁路网演化曲线逐步融合划分成为4 个生命周期.选择四个典型的生长曲线模型，对每一个生命周期的曲线进行拟合识别，得到中国铁路网演化生命周期遵循Logistic 模型的生长规律和每个生命周期的生长曲线公式及参数.研究表明，中国铁路网演变遵循连续形生长曲线特征，分别为萌芽期（1949–1969 年），发展期（1970–1988 年），调整期（1989–1998 年）和繁荣期（1999–2020 年后），每一个生命周期都遵循着发生、成长到成熟的生长特征.目前中国铁路网处于第四生命周期中的成长期，周期结束时间约为2023 年，里程将达到12.537 万km.相关部门应当根据铁路网演化生命周期的生长规律，在不同生长阶段采取相应的发展策略，指导和促进中国铁路网顺利过渡到下一生命周期.

关键词: 铁路运输, 演化, 生命周期, 生长曲线, 拟合优度

Abstract:

Life cycle assessmen（t LCA）of China’s railway network evolution（1949–2020）is to obtained the periodic change and development law on spatiotemporal evolution by using growth curve theory. According to the maximum membership degree principle of adjust goodness of fit, the evolution process of China’s railway network were gradually fused four life cycle. Four typical growth curve model are adopted to fit the curves with each life cycle, then get the evolution law that the life cycle of China’s railway network follow the laws of Logistic model and the calculation formula and parameter selection of each life cycle is introduced. The results show that China’s railway network evolution follow the characteristics of the continuous form of growth curve and grouped into four life cycle, sprout cycle(1949–1969)，development cycle(1970–1988)，adjustment cycle(1989–1998)and prosperous cycle(1999–2020 later), each cycle follow the growth law like generation, growth and maturation. At present, the evolution of the railway network is in the growth stage of the prosperous cycle, the end of the life cycle time is about 2023, the total length of China’s railway network will reach 125,370 km. The related departments should take appropriate development strategy in different stages according to the growth law of China’s railway network evolution, guide and promote the China’s railway network transition to the next life cycle smoothly.

Key words: railway transportation, evolution, life cycle assessment (LCA), growth curve, goodness of fit

中图分类号: