考虑定制出行的儿童通学方式选择行为研究

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2020, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (1): 111-116.

考虑定制出行的儿童通学方式选择行为研究

郝京京^{1, 2a, 2b}，张玲^{1, 2a, 2b} ，吴小龙³，杨晓泉⁴，刘澜^*1

1. 西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院，成都 610031；2. 昆明理工大学a. 云南省现代物流工程研究中心， b. 综合交通发展与区域物流管理智库，昆明 650500；3. 昆明阡陌交通工程咨询有限公司，昆明 650028； 4. 云南省交通运输厅路网监测与应急指挥中心，昆明 650100

收稿日期:2019-09-17 修回日期:2019-11-20 出版日期:2020-02-25 发布日期:2020-03-02
作者简介:郝京京(1990-)，男，河北石家庄人，博士生.
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金/ National Natural Science Foundation of China(61873216)；国家重点研发计划项目/National Key Research and Development Program of China (2017YFB1200702).

Children's School Travel Mode Choice Considering Customized Travel

HAO Jing-jing^{1, 2a, 2b}, ZHANG Ling^{1, 2a, 2b}, WU Xiao-long³, YANG Xiao-quan⁴, LIU Lan¹

1. School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China; 2a. Yunnan Engineering Research Center of Modern Logistics, 2b.Yunnan Integrated Transport Development and Regional Logistics Management Think Tank, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming 650500, China; 3. Kunming Qianmo Traffic Engineering Consulting Co. LTD, Kunming 650028, China; 4. Road Network Monitoring and Emergency Command Center, Yunnan Provincial Transportation Department, Kunming 650100, China

Received:2019-09-17 Revised:2019-11-20 Online:2020-02-25 Published:2020-03-02

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为系统获取考虑定制出行后儿童通学方式选择的行为模式，在系统选取影响儿童通学方式决策变量的基础上，集成结构方程模型和离散选择模型，提出儿童通学方式选择的混合选择模型(HCM)，以云南省昭通市为案例进行分析.结果表明：所构建的HCM模型相比结构方程模型和离散选择模型具有更高的拟合优度，更适用于儿童通学方式选择行为分析；与小汽车出行方式相比，行为意向对家长选择定制出行方式的影响更大，定制出行方式的普及更多取决于家庭的接受和依赖程度；时间和成本并非是家长选择定制出行方式的首要考虑因素.

关键词: 交通工程, 通学方式选择, 混合选择模型, 定制出行, 儿童

Abstract:

To obtain the family's mode choice behavior mechanism for children's school travel considering the introduction of the customized travel mode, the variables influencing children's school travel decision was selected systematically first, and the hybrid choice model (HCM) for children's school travel choice was then proposed based on the combination of structural equation model (SEM) and discrete choice model. A verification analysis was conducted by using Zhaotong, Yunnan province as a case area. The results show that: Compared with traditional modes of discrete choice model and SEM, the HCM model shows a higher fitting degree and is more suitable for the analysis of mode choice behavior of children's school travel; Taking car travel mode as a reference, the behavior intention plays a more significant role in parents' choice of customized school is behavior intention, the popularity of customized travel mode mostly depends on families' acceptance and reliance on it; Time and cost are not the primary factors influencing parents' choice of customized travel mode.

Key words: traffic engineering, school travel mode choice, hybrid choice model, customized travel, children

中图分类号:

U491.1

郝京京，张玲，吴小龙，杨晓泉，刘澜. 考虑定制出行的儿童通学方式选择行为研究[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2020, 20(1): 111-116.

HAO Jing-jing, ZHANG Ling, WU Xiao-long, YANG Xiao-quan, LIU Lan. Children's School Travel Mode Choice Considering Customized Travel[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2020, 20(1): 111-116.

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