关键词: 交通工程, 时间可靠性, Monte Carlo模拟, 多方式网络

Abstract:

A bus arrival time iterative expression is established under assumption of stoachastic travel time and bus dwell time at stops, and then the time reliability calculation method is presented based on bus arrival time in a multi-mode transport network of car and bus. A multi-modal transportation network equilibrium model with time reliability and its solution algorithm are both proposed and applied to a multi-mode network and a bus route. The results show that bus lanes and higher bus frequency both could improve the time reliability of bus, bus split and time reliability of car, but the latter will also increase the probability of bus bunching; the higher spacing of bus stops will reduce the rate of bus split, but will increase probability of bus bunching; when more bus stations added to a bus route, bus time reliability and bus split will decrease, especially the bus split in the downstream bus routes decrease significantly.

Key words: traffic engineering；time reliability, Monte Carlo simulation, multi-modal transportation networks