低限速公路车速选择行为分析与建模

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2019, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (2): 160-165.

低限速公路车速选择行为分析与建模

赵丹¹，王景升^*1，李娟²，白冰³

1. 中国人民公安大学交通管理学院，北京 102163；2. 北京交通大学城市交通复杂系统理论与技术教育部重点实验室，北京 100044；3. 兰州大学法学院，兰州 730000

收稿日期:2018-10-22 修回日期:2018-12-04 出版日期:2019-04-25 发布日期:2019-04-25
作者简介:赵丹(1983-)，女，吉林四平人，讲师，博士.
基金资助:
公安部公安理论及软科学研究计划项目/ Public Security Theory and Soft Science Research Project of Public Security Ministry(2018LLYJGADX042)；中国人民公安大学基本科研业务费项目/ Fundamental Research Funds for Central Universities(2018JKF322).

Analysis and Modeling of Speed Choice Behavior on Low Speed-limit Road

ZHAO Dan¹, WANG Jing-sheng¹, LI Juan², BAI Bing³

1. School of Traffic Management, People’s Public Security University of China, Beijing 102623, China; 2. MOE Key Laboratory for Urban Transportation Complex Systems Theory and Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China; 3. Law School, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China

Received:2018-10-22 Revised:2018-12-04 Online:2019-04-25 Published:2019-04-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

我国限速值低于 60 km/h的公路上超速 50%以下仅给予警告处分，部分低限速公路无交通监控设施，超速现象严重.以北京市郊某限速 40 km/h的公路路段为背景，设计并实施意向偏好调查(Stated Preference Survey，SP调查)，通过分析 SP数据，并建立随机效用—后悔混合模型，剖析驾驶人车速选择的影响因素，探索超速行为机理.结果表明，限速标志对车速有一定规范作用，其他车辆平均车速的影响会弱化违法监控设备的效果；性别、驾龄、驾驶车型和接受超速处罚的经历均对车速选择行为有显著影响；驾驶人面对超速带来的收益和损失，遵循后悔最小化原则进行决策.

关键词: 交通工程, 速度选择, 随机效用&mdash, 后悔混合模型, 限速, 交通执法, SP调查

Abstract:

It is specified that if caught speeding less than 50% on the road under the 60 km/h limit, only a warning sanction would be received, and few traffic monitors are installed, so speeding violations are common on some low- speed limit road. In this paper, a road segment located in the suburban of Beijing was selected as research object, and a stated preference (SP) survey was designed. By analyzing SP data, the factors associated with speed choice behavior is studied, and hybrid random utility-regret models are established, furthermore, the mechanism of speeding is explored. Results show that speed limit sign constrained speeding to some degree, other vehicles’average speed have stronger impact on some drivers’speed choice to the extent that traffic monitors are neglected; the factors including gender, driving experience, vehicle type and speeding penalty experience have a significant impact on speed choice behavior; drivers tend to follow regret minimization rule when measuring speeding loss and benefit to make decisions.

Key words: traffic engineering, speed choice, hybrid random utility- regret model, speed limit, traffic enforcement, SP survey

中图分类号:

U491

赵丹，王景升，李娟，白冰. 低限速公路车速选择行为分析与建模[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2019, 19(2): 160-165.

ZHAO Dan, WANG Jing-sheng, LI Juan, BAI Bing. Analysis and Modeling of Speed Choice Behavior on Low Speed-limit Road[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2019, 19(2): 160-165.

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