交通运输系统工程与信息

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2020, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (1): 222-227.

• 案例分析 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于路侧事故判别的公路平曲线车速限制研究

程国柱* 1, 2，程瑞1，徐亮3   

  1. 1. 东北林业大学交通学院，哈尔滨 150040；2. 重庆交通大学重庆市交通运输工程重点实验室，重庆 404100；3. 长春工程学院土木工程学院，长春 130012
  • 收稿日期:2019-08-01 修回日期:2019-12-10 出版日期:2020-02-25 发布日期:2020-03-02
  • 作者简介:程国柱(1977-)，男，吉林长春人，教授，博士.
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金面上项目/National Natural Science Foundation of China(51778063)；重庆市交通运输工程重点实验室开放基金/Open Fund of Chongqing Key Laboratory of Traffic & Transportation(2018TE05)；中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金/Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of Ministry of Education of China(2572019AB26).

Speed Limit in Curving Sections of Highway Based on Roadside Accidents Discriminant Analysis

CHENG Guo-zhu1, 2, CHENG Rui1, XU Liang3   

  1. 1. School of Traffic and Transportation, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China; 2. Chongqing Key Laboratory of Traffic & Transportation, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing 404100, China; 3. School of Civil Engineering, Changchun Institute of Technology, Changchun 130012, China
  • Received:2019-08-01 Revised:2019-12-10 Online:2020-02-25 Published:2020-03-02

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摘要：

车速是导致公路平曲线路段路侧事故频发的关键因素，为降低路侧事故率，需进行车速限制研究. 选取8 个路侧事故风险指标进行PC-crash 仿真试验，共收集12 800 条数据. 采用路径分析方法筛选得到显著性风险指标，将其纳入贝叶斯逐步判别分析中，构建对应不同车型的路侧事故判别函数，提出对应不同道路几何设计要素的最高安全车速计算模型. 结果显示：显著性风险指标对路侧事故影响程度，由大到小依次为车速、圆曲线半径、车型、路面附着系数、路肩宽度、纵坡坡度和超高横坡度；道路线形条件越好，保证不发生路侧事故的最高安全限速值越大；在相同道路设计指标下，小型客车最高限速值大于货车最高限速值.

关键词: 交通工程, 车速限制, PC-crash, 路径分析, 贝叶斯判别分析, 路侧事故

Abstract:

Speed is the key factor that leads to frequent roadside accidents in curving sections of highway. In order to reduce the roadside accidents occurrence, the research on speed limit is essential. In this paper, 8 roadside accidents risk indicators were selected for PC-crash simulation test, and a total of 12 800 data was collected. Path analysis was adopted to screen and obtain significant risk indicators. By incorporating the above significance risk indicators into Bayesian stepwise discriminant analysis, the roadside accidents discriminant functions corresponding to different vehicle types were constructed. Finally, the calculation models of maximum safe vehicle speed corresponding to different road geometric design characteristics were proposed. The study results show that: The significant risk indicators have the following order of influence on roadside accidents, such as vehicle speed, horizontal radius, vehicle type, adhesion coefficient, shoulder width, longitudinal slope and superelevation slope; The better the alignment condition of the road, the greater the maximum safe speed limit to ensure no occurrence of roadside accidents; Under the same road design condition, the maximum speed limit value of car is larger than that of truck.

Key words: traffic engineering, speed limit, PC- crash, path analysis, Bayesian stepwise discriminant analysis, roadside accidents

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