关键词: 交通工程, 出行行为, 最优路径, 路段间转移概率, Markov链

Abstract:

A method to find optimal route based on link-to-link transition probabilities is proposed. The trip data are divided into three groups to reflex the traffic conditions according to the departure time, namely morning peak, evening peak and off-peak; the trip data are further processed according to the zone of departure and the zone of destination, addressing the issue that there are not enough trip data for the given origin-destination. Based on the assumption that the optimal route is chosen by the experienced users, the link- to- link transition probabilities are calculated by the historical trajectories, and the Markov chain is established to simulate the link choice behavior. The route with maximum probability is suggested as the optimal route, and a calculation method is proposed. Only the historical trip data is utilized to find the optimal route by the proposal method, avoiding the complicated calculation of the link travel time. The method demonstrates the advantages of easy acquisition of data, high consistency with the actual behaviors, and low computation requirements. The case study indicates that the accuracy of proposal method may vary according to the departure time, but the sizes of traffic zones have tiny impact.

Key words: traffic engineering, travel behavior, optimal route, link-to-link transition probability, Markov chain