关键词: 交通方式划分, 交通方式结构, 非集计模型, 预测

Abstract: To build the relational model between fundamental characteristics of travelers and trip mode choice, effective measures that impact and guide urban trip mode structure have been studied. Besides, the discrete choice model has been used to build the functional relationship between trip mode choice and personal characteristics, family characteristics and travel characteristics of travelers. Personal characteristics, family characteristics and travel characteristics from statistics data of urban residents have also been obtained. What’s more, the discrete choice model has been used to deduce the trip mode structure. There are stable relations between trip mode split and personal characteristics, family characteristics and trip characteristics, which change little with the change of time. The trip model split deduced by the discrete choice model is relatively accurate, which is used to forecast whether the trip mode structure is feasible. The model built can also be used to study the key factors that influence traffic model choice. The discrete choice model can be used to restructure and optimize the urban trip mode structure. Through the guidance and adjustment of controllable factors, the purpose of optimizing urban trip mode structure can be achieved.

Key words: trip mode split, trip mode structure, discrete choice model, forecasting