后悔视角下的应急疏散出行方式决策行为分析

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2015, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (4): 18-23.

后悔视角下的应急疏散出行方式决策行为分析

安实^*，王泽，王健，崔建勋

哈尔滨工业大学交通安全特种材料与智能化控制技术交通行业重点实验室，哈尔滨150090

收稿日期:2015-03-05 修回日期:2015-05-04 出版日期:2015-08-25 发布日期:2015-08-25
作者简介:安实(1968-)，男，黑龙江哈尔滨人，教授，博士，博士生导师.
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金面上项目(51478151).

Travel Mode Decision Behavior under Regret View for Emergency Evacuation

AN Shi,WANG Ze ,WANG Jian , CUI Jian-xun

Key Laboratory of Advanced Material & Intelligent Control Technology on Transportation Safety, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150090, China

Received:2015-03-05 Revised:2015-05-04 Online:2015-08-25 Published:2015-08-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

鉴于应急疏散者出行决策的后悔规避心理，以政府公交车、自有私家车和借用私家车三类疏散交通方式选择问题为例，选取平均运行时间、运行时间不确定性、平均等待时间和预期感知服务水平等属性变量，分别构建了基于随机后悔最小化和效用最大化的多项Logit 模型.以应急疏散意向行为调查数据为基础，表明后悔模型的模型拟合度优于效用模型，对属性变量间关系的刻画更符合实际.进一步通过弹性计算和敏感性分析，揭示出平均运行时间这一属性最为敏感.研究表明，应急疏散者是后悔规避的，其决策行为试图将后悔感知最小化，而非预期效用最大化，从随机后悔视角描述疏散决策行为更为准确.

关键词: 交通工程, 应急疏散, 方式选择, 随机最小后悔模型, 随机最大效用模型, 后悔规避

Abstract:

Due to evacuee's regret aversion psychology from travel decisions during emergency evacuation, random regret minimization and random utility maximization models are formulated based on multinomial Logit model, respectively. Take governmental bus, private car and shared car as evacuation modes, the aim is to analyze the influence of attribute variables on mode choice, including the average travel time, travel time uncertainty, waiting time and perceived service level. According to evacuation behavior stated preference data, the results indicate that the model fit of the regret model is better than that of utility approach. The attribute description from the regret model is more reasonable. Moreover, elasticity and sensitivity analysis are made to reveal the influence of average travel time. It is found that evacuees with regret aversion would try to minimize the regret perception, rather than to maximize expected utility. It seems more accurate that evacuation decision can be depicted from random regret view.

Key words: traffic engineering, emergency evacuation, travel mode behavior, random regret minimization model, random utility maximization, regret aversion

中图分类号:

U491.12

安实，王泽，王健，崔建勋. 后悔视角下的应急疏散出行方式决策行为分析[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2015, 15(4): 18-23.

AN Shi,WANG Ze,WANG Jian,CUI Jian-xun. Travel Mode Decision Behavior under Regret View for Emergency Evacuation[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2015, 15(4): 18-23.

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