交通运输系统工程与信息

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2003, Vol. 3 ›› Issue (1): 75-79 .

• 案例分析 • 上一篇    下一篇

灰色系统理论在道路货运量、货运周转量预测中的应用

张永杰   

  1. 山东交通学院，山东济南250023
  • 收稿日期:2002-11-21 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2003-02-01 发布日期:2003-02-01

Forecast Freight Quantity and Turnover Quantity Based on Grey Model Theory

ZHANG Yong-jie   

  1. ShanDong Jiaotong University, Jinan 250023，China
  • Received:2002-11-21 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2003-02-01 Published:2003-02-01

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被引次数

40

摘要： 基于灰色系统GM(1,1)模型和残差修正GM(1,1)模型，预测道路货运量及货运周转量，可充分开发并利用了少量数据中的显信息和隐信息，避免复杂的相关关系，克服原始数据的离散性，得到高精度的预测结果.以山东省道路货运量及货运周转量为例进行了中短期预测，并用后验差方法对预测结果进行了检验。

关键词: 灰色系统, 道路货运量, 货运周转量, 预测

Abstract: Based on grey model GM(1,1) and remnant difference correct model GM(1,1), road freight quantity and turnover quantity are forecasted. The showed information and latent information in a small amount of data can be developed and utilized fully, complicated correlativity is abstained, the discreteness of originality data is overcome, the high-precise predicted result is received. This paper takes the short-term forecast according to the roadfreight quantity and turnover quantity in shandong province and examines the forecasted result with the methods of posterior check.

Key words: grey model, road freight quantity, freight turnover quantity, forecast