高速公路平纵组合路段运行速度分析与预测

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2014, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (2): 150-157.

高速公路平纵组合路段运行速度分析与预测

孟祥海^*，王丹丹，张志召

哈尔滨工业大学交通科学与工程学院，哈尔滨150090

收稿日期:2013-09-30 修回日期:2013-11-17 出版日期:2014-04-25 发布日期:2014-07-07
作者简介:孟祥海(1969- )，男，黑龙江省海伦县人，教授，博士生导师，工学博士.

Analysis and Prediction of Operating Speed on Horizontal Curve Combined with Longitudinal Slope for Expressway

MENG Xiang-hai, WANG Dan-dan, ZHANG Zhi-zhao

School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin150090, China

Received:2013-09-30 Revised:2013-11-17 Online:2014-04-25 Published:2014-07-07

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对设计速度100km/h高速公路上平曲线与纵坡组合路段的运行速度特征及其预测问题开展研究工作.首先，通过分析车头时距与实测车速的关系，提出了基于车头时距的自由行驶状态判别准则.然后，基于该准则提取了自由行驶状态下的实测车速数据，计算运行速度并分析了运行速度与平曲线半径、纵坡的关系.最后，分别建立了基于回归分析的、基于BP神经网络的及基于模糊逻辑的运行速度预测模型，并进行了模型精度分析.研究结果表明：(1)当车头时距大于6s时，交通处于自由行驶状态，此时的实测车速可用于运行速度计算；(2)小客车运行速度受平曲线半径影响较大，而大货车运行速度则随上坡坡度的增加而显著降低；(3)三个预测模型均可用于预测平曲线与纵坡组合路段的平均运行速度.

关键词: 交通工程, 运行速度, 自由行驶状态, 高速公路, 回归分析, 神经网络, 模糊逻辑

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the operating speed characteristics at horizontal curve combined with longitudinal slope and proposes prediction models for expressway, whose design speed is 100km/h. The observed speeds and the time headways are obtained, and the free flow condition is determined based on the relationship between them. Under the free flow condition, the operating speed is obtained and the relationship between operating speed and geometric alignments as radius of horizontal curve and longitudinal slope are analyzed. Lastly, the regression model, the BP neural network model and the fuzzy logic model are proposed to predict the operating speed, and the prediction accuracy is analyzed. The study results show that: When the time headway is greater than 6s, the traffic condition can be taken as free condition, which could be used to calculate operating speed; The operating speed of passenger cars are influenced significantly by radius of horizontal curve, whereas the operating speed of trucks are influenced by the gradient of upgrade; The proposed three operating speed prediction models have comparable predict capability.

Key words: traffic engineering, operating speed, free driving condition, expressway, regression analysis, neural network, fuzzy logic

中图分类号:

U491

孟祥海*，王丹丹，张志召. 高速公路平纵组合路段运行速度分析与预测[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2014, 14(2): 150-157.

MENG Xiang-hai, WANG Dan-dan, ZHANG Zhi-zhao. Analysis and Prediction of Operating Speed on Horizontal Curve Combined with Longitudinal Slope for Expressway[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2014, 14(2): 150-157.

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链接本文: http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/abstract/abstract18762.shtml

http://www.tseit.org.cn/CN/Y2014/V14/I2/150

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