交通运输系统工程与信息

交通运输系统工程与信息 ›› 2005, Vol. 5 ›› Issue (2): 74-78 .

• 系统工程理论与方法 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于计量经济学模型的汽车保有量预测

龚华炜，靳文舟   

  1. 华南理工大学交通学院，广州510640
  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2005-04-20 发布日期:2005-04-20

Forecast of Vehicle Population Based on Model of Econometrics

GONG Hua-wei， JIN Wen-zhou   

  1. College of Traffic and Communications,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510640,China
  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2005-04-20 Published:2005-04-20

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被引次数

83

摘要： 汽车保有量与社会经济的发展有着密切关系，通过建立计量经济学模型寻求汽车保有量和社会经济有关指标的函数关系，可以较为准确地预测一个地区短期内的汽车保有量.本文根据广东省的统计数据，给出建立计量经济学预测模型和进行各项检验的详细过程，并根据模型预测了广东省2004年和2005年的汽车保有量.

关键词: 计量经济学模型, 广东省, 汽车保有量, 预测

Abstract: There is a close relationship between vehicle population and development of society and economy. By established a model of econometrics and the paper sets up the relation of function of vehicle population and development of society and economy, comparatively forecast vehicle population of some region in a short time. Based on the statistic data of Guangdong, this paper introduces the concrete process of setting up econometrics model and forcasting the vehicle population of Guangdong province in 2004 and 2005.

Key words: model of econometrics, province of Guangdong, vehicle population, forecast